Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Slider 26%, Curveball 15%.
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026
Misiorowski, Jacob
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team MIL
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.03 |
| ERA current pace | 1.83 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.82 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
ERA
1.70
2.23
2.82
3.41
3.93
FIP
1.59
2.00
2.46
2.92
3.33
K%
30.4%
32.0%
33.7%
35.5%
37.0%
BB%
6.0%
6.8%
7.7%
8.6%
9.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.1%
72
+20 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.3%
93
+46 vs proj
Fastball velo99.8
99
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
77
K%37.8%
99
Whiff%35.2%
98
+20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.236
98
+25 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+111
98
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
62%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 62.7% | 680 | 112 | qualified |
| SL | 22.5% | 244 | 112 | qualified |
| CB | 12.1% | 131 | 97 | limited sample |
| CH | 1.5% | 16 | 98 | limited sample |
| FC | 1.2% | 13 | 110 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.68 |
| K% Δ | +0.089 |
| Sample | 75.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 68.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 288 | -- | -- |
| K% | 28.9% | 24.0% to 35.7% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 6.3% to 12.1% | +/- 2.9% |
| Whiff% | 27.2% | 21.6% to 30.5% | +/- 4.5% |
| HR/9 | 1.16 | 0.84 to 1.80 | +/- 0.48 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.287 | 0.243 to 0.317 | +/- 0.037 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.8% | 5.2% to 10.5% | +/- 2.6% |
| ERA | 3.51 | 2.70 to 5.84 | +/- 1.57 |
| FIP | 3.45 | 2.42 to 4.86 | +/- 1.22 |
| WHIP | 1.182 | 0.906 to 1.512 | +/- 0.303 |
vs LHH
161 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.228 |
| K% | 28.5% |
| BB% | 8.9% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |
vs RHH
158 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.229 |
| K% | 24.2% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |