Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Misiorowski, Jacob

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
28.9% K%
Range
24.0% to 35.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
95
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
94
Arsenal6 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace1.62
ERA rolling p502.47
Observed weight65%
ERA
1.31 1.86 2.47 3.08 3.62
FIP
1.57 2.00 2.47 2.94 3.37
K%
32.2% 33.5% 35.0% 36.5% 37.8%
BB%
5.8% 6.5% 7.2% 8.0% 8.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.78
99
ERA1.62
98
BB%6.5%
82 +30 vs proj
K%38.4%
100
xwOBA allowed0.224
99 +25 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.4%
95 +49 vs proj
Fastball velo100.4
100
Hard-hit allowed34.8%
77
Whiff%34.2%
99 +19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+112
97
Mithrandir Stuff+111
99
Slider Stuff+112
97
Changeup Stuff+98
21
Curveball Stuff+99
9
Cutter Stuff+103
65
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Misiorowski, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.224 2026-07-05: 0.2262026-07-06: 0.2262026-07-07: 0.2262026-07-08: 0.2262026-07-09: 0.2242026-07-10: 0.2242026-07-11: 0.2242026-07-12: 0.2242026-07-13: 0.2242026-07-14: 0.2242026-07-15: 0.2242026-07-16: 0.224 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Misiorowski, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 34%34%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Misiorowski, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 62.9%Cutter: 12.9%Curveball: 11.3%Slider: 10.8%Changeup: 2.0% FF63% · 100 mphprimary pitch FF 63%FC 13%CU 11%SL 11%CH 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Misiorowski, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 63% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 100.4 mphFF100 mphCutter: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.0 mphFC96 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 87.8 mphCU88 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 92.6 mphSL93 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 92.5 mphCH92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 62.5% 744 112 qualified
SL 21.2% 252 112 qualified
CB 11.3% 134 99 limited sample
FC 3.8% 45 103 limited sample
CH 1.3% 16 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Slider 26%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.89
K% Δ+0.095
Sample115.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.5----
Batters Faced286----
K%28.9%24.0% to 35.7%+/- 5.9%
BB%8.6%6.3% to 12.1%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%27.2%21.6% to 30.5%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.160.84 to 1.80+/- 0.48
xwOBA Against0.2870.243 to 0.317+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.2% to 10.5%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.512.70 to 5.84+/- 1.57
FIP3.452.42 to 4.86+/- 1.22
WHIP1.1820.906 to 1.512+/- 0.303
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

161 career BF

xwOBA0.228
K%28.5%
BB%8.9%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

158 career BF

xwOBA0.229
K%24.2%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.9%