Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Luzardo, Jesús

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
25.9% K%
Range
21.7% to 33.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
74
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
80
Arsenal5 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.05
ERA current pace3.51
ERA rolling p503.68
Observed weight68%
ERA
2.63 3.13 3.68 4.24 4.74
FIP
1.92 2.38 2.89 3.39 3.85
K%
25.6% 26.8% 28.1% 29.5% 30.7%
BB%
6.3% 6.8% 7.5% 8.2% 8.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.27
59
ERA3.51
63
BB%7.5%
69
K%28.9%
88
xwOBA allowed0.269
90 +40 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.1%
84 +45 vs proj
Fastball velo96.5
80
Hard-hit allowed30.4%
94
Whiff%30.2%
91
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+107
80
Fastball Stuff+103
50
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Slider Stuff+95
10
Sinker Stuff+111
99
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Luzardo, Jesús · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.269 2026-07-06: 0.2732026-07-07: 0.2732026-07-08: 0.2732026-07-09: 0.2732026-07-10: 0.2732026-07-11: 0.2692026-07-12: 0.2692026-07-13: 0.2692026-07-14: 0.2692026-07-15: 0.2692026-07-16: 0.2692026-07-17: 0.269 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Luzardo, Jesús · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Luzardo, Jesús · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 36.3%4-Seam Fastball: 24.8%Changeup: 20.5%Sinker: 18.1%Slider: 0.3% ST36% · 86 mphprimary pitch ST 36%FF 25%CH 20%SI 18%SL 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Luzardo, Jesús · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 36% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.3 mphST86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.0 mphFF97 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mphSinker: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 95.9 mphSI96 mphSlider: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.5 mphSL84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 34.4% 392 95 qualified
FB 27.5% 314 103 qualified
CH 23.7% 270 107 qualified
SI 14.5% 165 111 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.248 vs 0.293 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Sweeper 32%, Changeup 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.51
K% Δ+0.030
Sample118.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings74.9----
Batters Faced316----
K%25.9%21.7% to 33.1%+/- 5.7%
BB%7.3%5.6% to 10.1%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%27.3%24.7% to 33.5%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.150.75 to 1.79+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.3140.261 to 0.321+/- 0.030
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.2% to 11.3%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.023.00 to 5.81+/- 1.41
FIP3.212.68 to 5.24+/- 1.28
WHIP1.2331.062 to 1.507+/- 0.223
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

692 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%29.9%
BB%5.7%
Barrel6.1%
vs RHH

2466 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%23.5%
BB%7.4%
Barrel8.6%