Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026

Olson, Matt

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.362 xwOBA
Range
0.298 to 0.407
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Impact slugger Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.352
xwOBA current pace0.382
xwOBA rolling p500.369
Observed weight56%
xwOBA
0.337 0.352 0.369 0.385 0.400
wOBA
0.376 0.393 0.413 0.433 0.451
ISO
0.218 0.237 0.258 0.278 0.297
K%
20.8% 22.1% 23.6% 25.0% 26.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.9%
64
Barrel%10.9%
96
Bat speed72.7
86
Exit velocity93.4
96
Hard-hit%52.1%
94
K%22.9%
44
xBA0.359
80
xSLG0.749
96
xwOBA0.382
92
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 1B
98
Range Runs4.5 · 1B
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · 1B
29
Sprint Speed25.3 · 1B
9
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.9% · rebadged research
71
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
47
Correct Decisions68.7% · rebadged research
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.319 · borderline
7
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
49
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
18
Resists FastballwOBA 0.366 · validated
12
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376 · validated
14
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Olson, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3902026-05-19: 0.3882026-05-21: 0.3902026-05-23: 0.3812026-05-24: 0.3802026-05-25: 0.3772026-05-26: 0.3772026-05-28: 0.3832026-05-29: 0.3832026-05-30: 0.3802026-05-31: 0.3802026-06-01: 0.382 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

180 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Olson, Matt · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 66% of plotted batted ballsCenter 66%Right field third: 20% of plotted batted ballsOppo 20% LF 335 CF 400 RF 325 2026-03-16 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 27.02026-03-16 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 91.1 / LA 12.02026-03-16 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.9 / LA -8.02026-03-16 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 96.6 / LA 21.02026-03-18 · field out · SL · popup · EV 82.9 / LA 51.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.9 / LA 32.02026-03-20 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 45.02026-03-20 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 108.8 / LA 27.02026-03-21 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA -1.02026-03-21 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.7 / LA -39.02026-03-21 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 107.5 / LA 10.02026-03-23 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 34.02026-03-23 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 27.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball2026-03-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 57.1 / LA 44.02026-03-27 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 108.0 / LA 6.02026-03-27 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 82.2 / LA 23.02026-03-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 14.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -13.02026-03-29 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 27.02026-03-29 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 69.1 / LA -21.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 95.2 / LA 78.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 89.6 / LA 61.02026-03-30 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 81.9 / LA 13.02026-03-31 · field out · SL · popup · EV 89.8 / LA 63.02026-03-31 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 63.9 / LA -16.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.0 / LA -22.02026-04-01 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.2 / LA 2.02026-04-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 88.5 / LA 3.02026-04-02 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.0 / LA 31.02026-04-02 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 52.02026-04-02 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 13.02026-04-02 · double · EP · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 27.02026-04-03 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.3 / LA 30.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA -2.02026-04-03 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 24.02026-04-04 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.6 / LA 22.02026-04-04 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA 4.02026-04-05 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA -26.02026-04-06 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA 1.02026-04-06 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 85.9 / LA -27.02026-04-07 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 25.02026-04-07 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 59.5 / LA -14.02026-04-08 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 19.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 53.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA -29.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 27.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.1 / LA -23.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.4 / LA -4.02026-04-10 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 111.6 / LA 34.02026-04-11 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 26.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 41.02026-04-12 · field out · CH · popup · EV 84.3 / LA 77.02026-04-12 · field out · FC · popup · EV 78.9 / LA 77.02026-04-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.3 / LA -17.02026-04-12 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -4.02026-04-12 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 27.02026-04-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 81.3 / LA 24.02026-04-13 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA -36.02026-04-13 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 108.3 / LA 6.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.0 / LA -25.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 110.5 / LA 5.02026-04-14 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 108.3 / LA 13.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 35.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 20.02026-04-15 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 25.02026-04-17 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 19.02026-04-17 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 49.02026-04-18 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 32.02026-04-18 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 87.6 / LA 55.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.2 / LA 13.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.8 / LA 62.02026-04-19 · field out · CU · popup · EV 70.8 / LA 52.02026-04-19 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.6 / LA -23.02026-04-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 37.02026-04-20 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.2 / LA 27.02026-04-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 54.3 / LA -28.02026-04-20 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.6 / LA 26.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 33.02026-04-21 · field out · ST · popup · EV 88.7 / LA 71.02026-04-21 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.8 / LA -12.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.2 / LA 3.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 36.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.7 / LA 78.02026-04-22 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.4 / LA 22.02026-04-22 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA -28.02026-04-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.1 / LA -10.02026-04-23 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA -10.02026-04-23 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 100.0 / LA 21.02026-04-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 109.7 / LA 11.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 48.9 / LA -11.02026-04-24 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 104.0 / LA 13.02026-04-24 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 68.6 / LA -29.02026-04-24 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA -7.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 49.02026-04-25 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 68.8 / LA 37.02026-04-25 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 14.02026-04-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 37.02026-04-26 · field out · FC · popup · EV 88.6 / LA 83.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 38.02026-04-28 · sac fly · SI · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 16.02026-04-28 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 80.1 / LA 16.02026-04-29 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 23.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.9 / LA -4.02026-04-29 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 111.5 / LA 11.02026-04-30 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 41.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA -31.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.5 / LA -39.02026-05-01 · home run · SV · fly_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 27.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA -3.02026-05-01 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 52.02026-05-02 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 109.6 / LA 39.02026-05-02 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 58.02026-05-02 · field out · CH · popup · EV 72.3 / LA 74.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 52.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.1 / LA -40.02026-05-03 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 106.1 / LA 9.02026-05-03 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 110.0 / LA 11.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 61.02026-05-04 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 109.7 / LA 30.02026-05-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 42.02026-05-05 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 91.7 / LA 2.02026-05-05 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 110.5 / LA 23.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 33.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 82.1 / LA 35.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA -8.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.7 / LA 72.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -22.02026-05-09 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 12.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -5.02026-05-09 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.0 / LA 13.02026-05-10 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 25.02026-05-12 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 38.02026-05-12 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 84.8 / LA -36.02026-05-12 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 4.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 92.9 / LA 19.02026-05-13 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 5.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 0.02026-05-13 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 76.9 / LA 27.02026-05-14 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 108.6 / LA 12.02026-05-15 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 76.1 / LA 38.02026-05-16 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 87.6 / LA 20.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 33.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 7.02026-05-16 · field out · FC · popup · EV 91.2 / LA 64.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA -21.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA -7.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 40.02026-05-18 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -14.02026-05-18 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 10.02026-05-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 50.02026-05-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 11.02026-05-19 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -17.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.5 / LA 5.02026-05-20 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 110.6 / LA 9.02026-05-20 · field out · FA · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 36.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.4 / LA -33.02026-05-21 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 5.02026-05-21 · field out · SL · popup · EV 63.8 / LA 81.02026-05-21 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 40.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 39.0 / LA 30.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.5 / LA -47.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 25.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 37.02026-05-23 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 62.9 / LA -15.02026-05-23 · fielders choice · SL · ground_ball · EV 109.4 / LA 3.02026-05-23 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 60.1 / LA -38.02026-05-24 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 9.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -30.02026-05-24 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 83.1 / LA 50.02026-05-26 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 37.02026-05-26 · field out · SI · popup · EV 83.1 / LA 71.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 3.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.0 / LA 77.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 23.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 13.02026-05-31 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 48.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA -5.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 5.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · popup · EV 77.2 / LA 78.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Olson, Matt · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 34.3° Length 7.6 ft Ideal path 51% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Olson, Matt · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 10.3° Direction -1.6° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Olson, Matt · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 74.6 mph Hard swing rate 45% Whiff / swing 22% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Olson, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 27%27%Whiff: 20%20%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 80%80%Hard hit: 52%52% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.323 vs 0.283 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.020
wOBA Δ+0.052
Sample284 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances645----
Home Runs31----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3620.298 to 0.407+/- 0.054
ISO0.2200.146 to 0.304+/- 0.079
Barrel%8.2%5.6% to 10.4%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%50.8%43.3% to 58.7%+/- 7.7%
K%23.5%19.6% to 29.4%+/- 4.9%
BB%11.7%9.3% to 14.9%+/- 2.8%
BABIP0.3110.260 to 0.351+/- 0.045
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1614 career PA

xwOBA0.283
K%23.1%
BB%6.8%
Barrel6.1%
vs RHP

3818 career PA

xwOBA0.323
K%20.2%
BB%12.2%
Barrel7.7%