Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Peña, Jeremy
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
65
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.326 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.323 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.324 |
| Observed weight | 68% |
xwOBA
0.302
0.312
0.324
0.336
0.346
wOBA
0.320
0.333
0.348
0.363
0.376
ISO
0.157
0.167
0.179
0.190
0.201
K%
20.0%
21.0%
22.1%
23.2%
24.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
48
Exit velocity88.4
56
Hard-hit%39.0%
53
xBA0.360
88
xSLG0.569
72
xwOBA0.323
71
BB%5.1%
15
Bat speed70.7
68
K%23.9%
45
-32 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
64
Arm Strength91.3 · SS
78
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · SS
10
Range Runs-3.2 · SS
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.3 · SS
82
Bolts30.0 · SS
81
SB Success Rate81.8% · SS
54
Sprint Speed29.3 · SS
93
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.1% · rebadged research
13
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.9% · rebadged research
75
Correct Decisions63.9% · rebadged research
27
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
81
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.250 · insufficient sample
98
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.252 · validated thin sample
95
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
51
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
67
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
53
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
188 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.034 |
| Sample | 473 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 549 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.292 to 0.367 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.134 | 0.120 to 0.217 | +/- 0.048 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 3.2% to 6.7% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.2% | 36.4% to 46.7% | +/- 5.2% |
| K% | 18.0% | 15.7% to 22.7% | +/- 3.5% |
| BB% | 5.5% | 4.3% to 8.6% | +/- 2.1% |
| BABIP | 0.318 | 0.300 to 0.371 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
650 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.285 |
| K% | 12.9% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |
vs RHP
1938 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.273 |
| K% | 16.3% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |