Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Peña, Jeremy
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.326 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.360 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.337 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
xwOBA
0.305
0.320
0.337
0.354
0.369
wOBA
0.278
0.307
0.339
0.371
0.400
ISO
0.111
0.128
0.147
0.166
0.183
K%
14.6%
16.0%
17.5%
19.0%
20.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%4.0%
8
Barrel%4.0%
35
Bat speed70.8
68
Exit velocity85.0
15
Hard-hit%27.3%
9
-41 vs proj
K%16.0%
83
xBA0.380
91
xSLG0.571
67
xwOBA0.360
84
+28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.2 · SS
77
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
27
Range Runs0.2 · SS
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · SS
17
Sprint Speed28.4 · SS
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.8% · rebadged research
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.1% · rebadged research
96
Correct Decisions68.9% · rebadged research
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
38
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
70
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
77
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
73
Resists FastballwOBA 0.363 · validated
14
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344 · validated
81
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
66
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
68 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.046 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.025 |
| Sample | 100 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 549 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.292 to 0.367 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.134 | 0.120 to 0.217 | +/- 0.048 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 3.2% to 6.7% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.1% | 36.4% to 46.7% | +/- 5.2% |
| K% | 18.0% | 15.7% to 22.7% | +/- 3.5% |
| BB% | 5.5% | 4.3% to 8.6% | +/- 2.1% |
| BABIP | 0.318 | 0.300 to 0.371 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
650 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.285 |
| K% | 12.9% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |
vs RHP
1938 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.273 |
| K% | 16.3% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |