Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Contreras, Willson
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team BOS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.356 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.399 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.379 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.351
0.364
0.379
0.394
0.407
wOBA
0.372
0.391
0.412
0.433
0.452
ISO
0.156
0.173
0.191
0.210
0.226
K%
21.3%
22.7%
24.2%
25.7%
27.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.6%
62
Barrel%8.4%
85
Bat speed73.9
93
Exit velocity89.9
68
Hard-hit%44.7%
70
K%24.5%
36
xBA0.399
95
xSLG0.757
96
xwOBA0.399
97
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
81
Range Runs1.9 · 1B
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
17
Sprint Speed27.1 · 1B
45
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.8% · rebadged research
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.2% · rebadged research
69
Correct Decisions66.0% · rebadged research
48
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
55
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · borderline
14
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.264 · insufficient sample
89
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
15
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
60
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347 · validated
36
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.413 · validated
1
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
145 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.040 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.053 |
| Sample | 249 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 528 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.359 | 0.316 to 0.393 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.183 | 0.142 to 0.271 | +/- 0.065 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 5.1% to 9.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.6% | 42.2% to 53.1% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 24.2% | 20.2% to 29.5% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 9.0% | 7.6% to 11.8% | +/- 2.1% |
| BABIP | 0.330 | 0.281 to 0.375 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
1168 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.306 |
| K% | 20.6% |
| BB% | 9.5% |
| Barrel | 6.1% |
vs RHP
3337 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 21.1% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |