Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Contreras, Willson
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team BOS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
90
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.356 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.390 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.378 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.353
0.365
0.378
0.391
0.403
wOBA
0.392
0.407
0.424
0.441
0.457
ISO
0.192
0.206
0.222
0.238
0.252
K%
21.7%
22.9%
24.2%
25.5%
26.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
89
Exit velocity90.4
80
Hard-hit%47.0%
83
xBA0.386
95
xSLG0.740
96
xwOBA0.390
98
BB%9.4%
61
Bat speed74.4
96
K%24.4%
40
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Range Runs-0.4 · 1B
43
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · 1B
8
Sprint Speed27.3 · 1B
48
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.3% · rebadged research
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0% · rebadged research
61
Correct Decisions65.5% · rebadged research
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.313 · borderline
10
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
75
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302 · validated thin sample
11
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
60
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
33
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.428 · validated
1
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
171 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.031 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.065 |
| Sample | 381 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 528 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.359 | 0.316 to 0.393 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.183 | 0.142 to 0.271 | +/- 0.065 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 5.1% to 9.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.6% | 42.2% to 53.1% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 24.2% | 20.2% to 29.5% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 9.0% | 7.6% to 11.8% | +/- 2.1% |
| BABIP | 0.330 | 0.281 to 0.375 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
1168 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.306 |
| K% | 20.6% |
| BB% | 9.5% |
| Barrel | 6.1% |
vs RHP
3337 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 21.1% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |