Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Cole, Gerrit

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.6% K%
Range
16.6% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
77
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal6 metrics
80
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.83
ERA current pace3.63
ERA rolling p503.69
Observed weight69%
ERA
2.66 3.15 3.69 4.23 4.72
FIP
2.68 3.29 3.97 4.65 5.25
K%
21.7% 22.8% 24.1% 25.4% 26.6%
BB%
3.9% 4.4% 4.9% 5.5% 5.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
84
ERA3.63
65
BB%4.7%
97
K%25.3%
73 +34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.300
68 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.4%
20
Fastball velo96.7
84
Hard-hit allowed44.9%
9
Whiff%19.5%
24
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+107
91
Slider Stuff+108
93
Changeup Stuff+101
41
Curveball Stuff+106
96
Sinker Stuff+105
73
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cole, Gerrit · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.300 2026-09-12: 0.2962026-09-13: 0.3032026-09-14: 0.3032026-09-18: 0.3032026-09-19: 0.3022026-09-20: 0.3022026-09-21: 0.3022026-09-22: 0.3022026-09-23: 0.3022026-09-24: 0.3002026-09-25: 0.3002026-09-26: 0.300 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cole, Gerrit · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cole, Gerrit · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.4%Slider: 19.9%Knuckle Curve: 14.1%Changeup: 12.7%Sinker: 3.6%Cutter: 0.4% FF49% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 49%SL 20%KC 14%CH 13%SI 4%FC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cole, Gerrit · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphSlider: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.5 mphSL89 mphKnuckle Curve: 14% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 83.3 mphKC83 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.0 mphCH86 mphSinker: 4% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.0 mphSI96 mphCutter: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.8 mphFC93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 51.4% 531 107 qualified
SL 20.3% 210 108 qualified
CB 14.6% 151 106 limited sample
CH 10.9% 113 101 limited sample
SI 2.6% 27 105 limited sample
FC 0.1% 1 109 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.37
K% Δ+0.047
Sample128.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings141.5----
Batters Faced580----
K%20.6%16.6% to 28.3%+/- 5.9%
BB%6.3%4.5% to 8.3%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%19.6%16.6% to 24.8%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.440.71 to 1.99+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3150.264 to 0.333+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.9% to 11.8%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.002.41 to 5.13+/- 1.36
FIP4.002.94 to 6.34+/- 1.70
WHIP1.2530.928 to 1.348+/- 0.210
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3593 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%21.2%
BB%6.4%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

3887 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%19.8%
BB%5.1%
Barrel8.5%