Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Cole, Gerrit

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.6% K%
Range
16.6% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
68
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal6 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.83
ERA current pace4.04
ERA rolling p503.93
Observed weight47%
ERA
2.97 3.42 3.93 4.44 4.89
FIP
2.80 3.37 4.00 4.64 5.21
K%
18.7% 20.4% 22.3% 24.1% 25.8%
BB%
3.9% 4.5% 5.3% 6.0% 6.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
67
ERA4.04
49
BB%5.1%
95
K%23.0%
55 +18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.289
73 +24 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.3%
18 -16 vs proj
Fastball velo96.7
82
Hard-hit allowed41.1%
36
Whiff%16.2%
5 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+99
28
Curveball Stuff+108
100
Fastball Stuff+110
94
Mithrandir Stuff+108
94
Sinker Stuff+103
57
Slider Stuff+105
70
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cole, Gerrit · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.289 2026-07-05: 0.2852026-07-06: 0.2852026-07-07: 0.2852026-07-08: 0.2852026-07-09: 0.2852026-07-10: 0.2892026-07-11: 0.2892026-07-12: 0.2892026-07-13: 0.2892026-07-14: 0.2892026-07-15: 0.2892026-07-16: 0.289 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cole, Gerrit · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 59%59%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cole, Gerrit · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.6%Slider: 18.9%Changeup: 14.5%Knuckle Curve: 13.5%Sinker: 7.5% FF46% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 46%SL 19%CH 15%KC 13%SI 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cole, Gerrit · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphSlider: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.3 mphSL89 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mphKnuckle Curve: 13% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 82.9 mphKC83 mphSinker: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 96.1 mphSI96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.0% 108 110 limited sample
SL 20.4% 49 105 limited sample
CH 14.2% 34 99 limited sample
CB 13.8% 33 108 limited sample
SI 6.7% 16 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.04
K% Δ+0.024
Sample50.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.4----
Batters Faced588----
K%20.6%16.6% to 28.3%+/- 5.9%
BB%6.3%4.5% to 8.3%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%19.6%16.6% to 24.8%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.440.71 to 1.99+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3150.264 to 0.333+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.9% to 11.8%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.002.41 to 5.13+/- 1.36
FIP4.002.94 to 6.34+/- 1.70
WHIP1.2530.928 to 1.348+/- 0.210
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3593 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%21.2%
BB%6.4%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

3887 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%19.8%
BB%5.1%
Barrel8.5%