Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / KC · 2026
Jensen, Carter
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team KC
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.275 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.303 |
| Observed weight | 49% |
xwOBA
0.265
0.283
0.303
0.323
0.341
wOBA
0.292
0.311
0.333
0.355
0.374
ISO
0.119
0.140
0.163
0.187
0.208
K%
20.8%
23.0%
25.5%
28.0%
30.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.8%
72
+20 vs proj
Barrel%4.7%
45
-23 vs proj
Bat speed72.2
81
Exit velocity89.8
67
Hard-hit%41.1%
54
K%28.2%
20
-28 vs proj
xBA0.288
21
xSLG0.494
45
xwOBA0.275
20
-58 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-2.1 · C
2
Catcher Throwing1.8 · C
90
Framing Runs1.5 · C
69
Pop Time1.9 · C
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · C
70
Sprint Speed27.7 · C
61
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.2% · rebadged research
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.5% · rebadged research
87
Correct Decisions71.1% · rebadged research
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.234 · borderline
100
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
22
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
46
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · insufficient sample
15
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343 · validated
44
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.387 · validated
6
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
90
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
124 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.071 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.013 |
| Sample | 213 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 236 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.346 | 0.217 to 0.346 | +/- 0.064 |
| ISO | 0.194 | 0.088 to 0.253 | +/- 0.082 |
| Barrel% | 6.5% | 3.2% to 9.5% | +/- 3.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.6% | 22.0% to 48.2% | +/- 13.1% |
| K% | 22.1% | 10.5% to 27.4% | +/- 8.4% |
| BB% | 9.0% | 4.2% to 11.7% | +/- 3.8% |
| BABIP | 0.305 | 0.210 to 0.342 | +/- 0.066 |
vs LHP
16 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.090 |
| K% | 4.3% |
| BB% | 2.9% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |
vs RHP
58 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.104 |
| K% | 4.1% |
| BB% | 3.3% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |