Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Contreras, William
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
71
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.342 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.334 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.336 |
| Observed weight | 75% |
xwOBA
0.315
0.325
0.336
0.347
0.357
wOBA
0.337
0.348
0.361
0.374
0.385
ISO
0.146
0.156
0.167
0.178
0.188
K%
14.4%
15.3%
16.2%
17.1%
18.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
80
Exit velocity90.5
84
Hard-hit%44.7%
80
xBA0.312
42
xSLG0.529
58
xwOBA0.334
82
BB%9.2%
59
Bat speed71.5
76
K%14.6%
90
+17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.7 · C
8
Catcher Throwing3.2 · C
94
Framing Runs-5.9 · C
6
Pop Time1.9 · C
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.8 · C
8
Sprint Speed26.0 · C
16
SB Success Rate33.3% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.5% · rebadged research
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.8% · rebadged research
88
Correct Decisions69.4% · rebadged research
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · borderline
16
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
52
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample
21
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
18
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.363 · insufficient sample
4
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.386 · validated
7
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.014 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.013 |
| Sample | 649 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 627 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.348 | 0.294 to 0.387 | +/- 0.046 |
| ISO | 0.175 | 0.128 to 0.252 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 4.1% to 8.3% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 48.7% | 45.2% to 55.9% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 18.8% | 16.1% to 25.3% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 10.4% | 8.0% to 13.9% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.315 | 0.284 to 0.369 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
729 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.306 |
| K% | 17.2% |
| BB% | 11.4% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |
vs RHP
1961 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.293 |
| K% | 17.3% |
| BB% | 9.6% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |