Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Contreras, William
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.342 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.342 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.342 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.312
0.326
0.342
0.358
0.372
wOBA
0.350
0.369
0.390
0.411
0.430
ISO
0.129
0.144
0.162
0.179
0.195
K%
14.2%
15.4%
16.8%
18.2%
19.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.6%
45
-25 vs proj
Barrel%7.0%
74
Bat speed71.6
76
Exit velocity91.2
86
Hard-hit%46.0%
75
K%13.2%
91
+22 vs proj
xBA0.332
59
xSLG0.510
50
xwOBA0.342
76
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.3 · C
36
Catcher Throwing3.5 · C
100
Framing Runs-1.7 · C
22
Pop Time1.9 · C
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.1 · C
7
SB Success Rate50.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.6% · rebadged research
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · borderline
60
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
42
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
10
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · insufficient sample
7
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
46
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374 · validated
16
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
183 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.042 |
| Sample | 243 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 627 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.348 | 0.294 to 0.387 | +/- 0.046 |
| ISO | 0.175 | 0.128 to 0.252 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 4.1% to 8.3% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 48.7% | 45.2% to 55.9% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 18.8% | 16.1% to 25.3% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 10.4% | 8.0% to 13.9% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.315 | 0.284 to 0.369 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
729 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.306 |
| K% | 17.2% |
| BB% | 11.4% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |
vs RHP
1961 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.293 |
| K% | 17.3% |
| BB% | 9.6% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |