Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Guerrero Jr.., Vladimir
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team TOR
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
66
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.397 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.343 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.362 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.337
0.349
0.362
0.375
0.387
wOBA
0.314
0.329
0.345
0.361
0.375
ISO
0.116
0.128
0.141
0.155
0.167
K%
11.3%
12.2%
13.3%
14.4%
15.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
57
-36 vs proj
Exit velocity90.3
79
Hard-hit%45.5%
78
xBA0.337
66
xSLG0.477
38
xwOBA0.343
81
-18 vs proj
BB%10.8%
74
Bat speed74.7
97
K%12.8%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 1B
91
Range Runs3.6 · 1B
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · 1B
36
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
93
Sprint Speed26.1 · 1B
20
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.7% · rebadged research
50
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5% · rebadged research
81
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
76
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
37
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310 · validated thin sample
5
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample
95
Resists FastballwOBA 0.370 · validated
9
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374 · validated
17
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
216 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.051 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.049 |
| Sample | 398 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 666 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.393 | 0.348 to 0.436 | +/- 0.044 |
| ISO | 0.204 | 0.144 to 0.269 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 9.2% | 6.6% to 11.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 50.9% | 45.3% to 58.5% | +/- 6.6% |
| K% | 13.3% | 11.1% to 19.5% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 11.1% | 8.7% to 14.1% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.319 | 0.283 to 0.359 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
985 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.357 |
| K% | 11.2% |
| BB% | 13.6% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |
vs RHP
3479 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.348 |
| K% | 12.0% |
| BB% | 9.2% |
| Barrel | 8.3% |