Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts
Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Henderson, Gunnar
Impact bat with above-average thump
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.367 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.305 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.332 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Swing path and decision map
Gunnar Henderson's tools (90) outpace production (79) by 11 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.
Field-coordinate spray profile
179 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Projection notes
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.064 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.024 |
| Sample | 286 PA |
negative regression
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 600 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 24 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.369 | 0.308 to 0.415 | +/- 0.053 |
| ISO | 0.207 | 0.141 to 0.304 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 7.7% | 4.7% to 10.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 52.3% | 44.9% to 58.9% | +/- 7.0% |
| K% | 20.5% | 17.8% to 27.4% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 10.0% | 7.8% to 13.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.317 | 0.271 to 0.373 | +/- 0.051 |
647 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.274 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 8.9% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
1548 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.334 |
| K% | 18.6% |
| BB% | 9.3% |
| Barrel | 7.2% |