Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team NYY
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.252 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.259 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.253 |
| Observed weight | 13% |
xwOBA
0.158
0.203
0.253
0.302
0.347
wOBA
0.275
0.327
0.385
0.443
0.495
ISO
0.038
0.081
0.128
0.175
0.218
K%
15.2%
20.3%
25.9%
31.6%
36.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · RF
Limited
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF · small sample regression applied
66
Regression applied
Range Runs0.2 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate100.0%
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.7% · rebadged research
18
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.4% · rebadged research
81
Correct Decisions66.1% · rebadged research
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
37
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
68
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
63
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
54
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333 · validated
64
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
51
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
16 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 205 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.291 | 0.109 to 0.323 | +/- 0.107 |
| ISO | 0.138 | 0.005 to 0.209 | +/- 0.102 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 0.2% to 4.9% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.9% | 8.3% to 43.7% | +/- 17.7% |
| K% | 25.1% | 9.8% to 34.1% | +/- 12.1% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 1.1% to 11.3% | +/- 5.1% |
| BABIP | 0.308 | 0.116 to 0.368 | +/- 0.126 |
vs LHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 2.1% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
16 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.9% |
| BB% | 0.9% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |