Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Jones, Spencer
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team NYY
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
94
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.252 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.327 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
xwOBA
0.245
0.269
0.295
0.321
0.345
wOBA
0.313
0.330
0.349
0.367
0.384
ISO
0.120
0.142
0.167
0.192
0.214
K%
24.9%
27.6%
30.5%
33.4%
36.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.5%
97
+61 vs proj
Exit velocity94.3
99
Hard-hit%55.3%
98
+63 vs proj
xBA0.399
98
xSLG0.762
98
xwOBA0.327
75
+40 vs proj
BB%8.8%
54
Bat speed75.4
99
K%35.6%
4
-33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · CF
31
Arm Strength95.1 · CF
59
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
25
Range Runs-2.0 · CF
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · CF
48
Bolts8.0 · CF
58
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
19
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
88
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9% · rebadged research
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.6% · rebadged research
94
Correct Decisions67.5% · rebadged research
65
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · borderline
11
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
59
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262 · validated thin sample
87
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
34
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
17
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
60
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
109 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.058 |
| Sample | 295 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 205 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.291 | 0.109 to 0.323 | +/- 0.107 |
| ISO | 0.138 | 0.005 to 0.209 | +/- 0.102 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 0.2% to 4.9% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.3% | 8.3% to 43.7% | +/- 17.7% |
| K% | 25.1% | 9.8% to 34.1% | +/- 12.1% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 1.1% to 11.3% | +/- 5.1% |
| BABIP | 0.308 | 0.116 to 0.368 | +/- 0.126 |
vs LHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 2.1% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
16 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.9% |
| BB% | 0.9% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |