Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Woodruff, Brandon

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.5% K%
Range
21.2% to 32.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced starter Age 33 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
86
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
67
Arsenal6 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace2.98
ERA rolling p503.51
Observed weight44%
ERA
2.39 2.92 3.51 4.10 4.63
FIP
2.68 3.10 3.57 4.03 4.45
K%
22.9% 24.7% 26.6% 28.6% 30.3%
BB%
4.1% 5.0% 5.9% 6.8% 7.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.91
95
ERA2.98
77
BB%5.8%
89
K%26.8%
78
xwOBA allowed0.263
92
Barrel allowed8.9%
33
Fastball velo92.0
16
Hard-hit allowed34.7%
78
Whiff%22.4%
45
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Changeup Stuff+108
87
Curveball Stuff+102
59
Cutter Stuff+104
67
Mithrandir Stuff+107
88
Sinker Stuff+103
62
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Woodruff, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.263 2026-07-05: 0.2642026-07-06: 0.2642026-07-07: 0.2642026-07-08: 0.2642026-07-09: 0.2642026-07-10: 0.2642026-07-11: 0.2642026-07-12: 0.2642026-07-13: 0.2642026-07-14: 0.2642026-07-15: 0.2642026-07-16: 0.263 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Woodruff, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Woodruff, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.4%Changeup: 21.3%Sinker: 18.3%Cutter: 11.4%Curveball: 4.9%Sweeper: 0.9% FF43% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 43%CH 21%SI 18%FC 11%CU 5%ST 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Woodruff, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 43% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 91.8 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 82.4 mphCH82 mphSinker: 18% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.4 mphSI92 mphCutter: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 88.5 mphFC88 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 75.9 mphCU76 mphSweeper: 1% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 79.4 mphST79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.9% 217 107 qualified
CH 19.8% 98 108 limited sample
SI 19.6% 97 103 limited sample
FC 11.1% 55 104 limited sample
CB 4.5% 22 102 limited sample
SL 1.0% 5 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 31%, 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Changeup 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.63
K% Δ+0.014
Sample47.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings138.7----
Batters Faced554----
K%25.5%21.2% to 32.7%+/- 5.8%
BB%6.8%3.9% to 9.3%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%21.9%18.0% to 26.6%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.280.94 to 2.00+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.2840.206 to 0.303+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.0% to 10.4%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.611.94 to 5.08+/- 1.57
FIP3.522.38 to 4.87+/- 1.24
WHIP1.1100.694 to 1.415+/- 0.360
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1655 career BF

xwOBA0.201
K%24.4%
BB%5.4%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

1626 career BF

xwOBA0.205
K%25.0%
BB%4.7%
Barrel7.2%