Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Tolle, Payton

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
16.5% to 31.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
79
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
74
Arsenal6 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace3.11
ERA rolling p503.41
Observed weight60%
ERA
2.19 2.77 3.41 4.05 4.63
FIP
2.74 3.15 3.59 4.04 4.44
K%
21.0% 22.7% 24.6% 26.4% 28.1%
BB%
6.5% 7.3% 8.2% 9.0% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.08
83
ERA3.11
73
BB%7.0%
76 +37 vs proj
K%25.8%
72 +22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.271
88 +29 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.8%
64
Fastball velo95.7
71
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
79
Whiff%23.6%
55
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+106
77
Mithrandir Stuff+106
86
Changeup Stuff+103
55
Curveball Stuff+103
65
Cutter Stuff+104
70
Sinker Stuff+104
65
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Tolle, Payton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.271 2026-07-05: 0.2792026-07-06: 0.2792026-07-07: 0.2792026-07-08: 0.2792026-07-09: 0.2742026-07-10: 0.2742026-07-11: 0.2742026-07-12: 0.2742026-07-13: 0.2742026-07-14: 0.2712026-07-15: 0.2712026-07-16: 0.271 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Tolle, Payton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tolle, Payton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.0%Sinker: 21.7%Cutter: 18.4%Curveball: 8.4%Changeup: 3.4% FF48% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 48%SI 22%FC 18%CU 8%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tolle, Payton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphSinker: 22% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mphCutter: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.2 mphFC88 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.4 mphCU82 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.7 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.2% 291 106 qualified
SI 23.1% 152 104 limited sample
FC 18.8% 124 104 limited sample
CB 10.0% 66 103 limited sample
CH 3.9% 26 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.201 vs 0.222 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 65%, Cutter 14%, Slider 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.25
K% Δ+0.033
Sample86.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.5----
Batters Faced282----
K%22.4%16.5% to 31.9%+/- 7.7%
BB%9.5%6.1% to 12.7%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%24.9%19.3% to 30.2%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.300.92 to 2.48+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3050.243 to 0.340+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed7.4%3.7% to 9.4%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.363.07 to 6.46+/- 1.69
FIP4.113.15 to 5.51+/- 1.18
WHIP1.3351.023 to 1.665+/- 0.321
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

16 career BF

xwOBA0.201
K%18.6%
BB%6.8%
Barrel3.9%
vs RHH

59 career BF

xwOBA0.222
K%17.5%
BB%7.2%
Barrel4.7%