Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Tolle, Payton

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
16.5% to 31.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
87
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
81
Arsenal6 metrics
73
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace3.02
ERA rolling p503.26
Observed weight72%
ERA
1.95 2.57 3.26 3.94 4.56
FIP
2.41 2.84 3.32 3.80 4.23
K%
24.1% 25.4% 26.8% 28.3% 29.5%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.4% 8.1% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
85
ERA3.02
82
BB%6.5%
85 +41 vs proj
K%28.4%
88 +36 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.255
95 +35 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
77 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
71
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
78
Whiff%25.0%
67
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+104
78
Fastball Stuff+106
81
Mithrandir Stuff+107
93
Sinker Stuff+108
86
Changeup Stuff+100
38
Curveball Stuff+103
62
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Tolle, Payton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.255 2026-09-12: 0.2552026-09-13: 0.2552026-09-14: 0.2532026-09-18: 0.2532026-09-19: 0.2532026-09-20: 0.2532026-09-21: 0.2532026-09-22: 0.2532026-09-23: 0.2552026-09-24: 0.2552026-09-25: 0.2552026-09-26: 0.255 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Tolle, Payton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tolle, Payton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.4%Sinker: 23.9%Cutter: 19.5%Curveball: 9.4%Changeup: 2.9% FF44% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 44%SI 24%FC 19%CU 9%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tolle, Payton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphSinker: 24% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mphCutter: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.6 mphFC89 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.7 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.5% 579 106 qualified
SI 25.6% 358 108 qualified
FC 19.3% 270 104 qualified
CB 10.5% 147 103 limited sample
CH 3.0% 42 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.201 vs 0.222 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 65%, Cutter 14%, Slider 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.34
K% Δ+0.059
Sample149.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.5----
Batters Faced286----
K%22.4%16.5% to 31.9%+/- 7.7%
BB%9.5%6.1% to 12.7%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%24.9%19.3% to 30.2%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.300.92 to 2.48+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3050.243 to 0.340+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed7.4%3.7% to 9.4%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.363.07 to 6.46+/- 1.69
FIP4.113.15 to 5.51+/- 1.18
WHIP1.3351.023 to 1.665+/- 0.321
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

16 career BF

xwOBA0.201
K%18.6%
BB%6.8%
Barrel3.9%
vs RHH

59 career BF

xwOBA0.222
K%17.5%
BB%7.2%
Barrel4.7%