Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Basallo, Samuel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 22
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
78
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.295 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.318 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.310 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.281
0.295
0.310
0.326
0.340
wOBA
0.305
0.319
0.334
0.350
0.364
ISO
0.162
0.177
0.193
0.210
0.225
K%
22.5%
24.1%
25.9%
27.7%
29.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
90
+18 vs proj
Exit velocity90.6
85
Hard-hit%44.0%
77
+16 vs proj
xBA0.332
67
xSLG0.623
84
xwOBA0.318
68
BB%8.2%
47
Bat speed72.2
81
K%26.5%
29
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.0 · C
81
Catcher Throwing1.4 · C
75
Framing Runs-5.7 · C
7
Outs Above Avg0.0 · C
68
Pop Time1.9 · C
70
Range Runs0.2 · C
80
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.7 · C
3
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.9% · rebadged research
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5% · rebadged research
68
Correct Decisions62.1% · rebadged research
16
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · borderline
24
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · insufficient sample
89
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
39
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.374 · insufficient sample
2
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated
82
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378 · validated
13
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
185 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.009 |
| Sample | 415 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 264 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.325 | 0.220 to 0.351 | +/- 0.065 |
| ISO | 0.195 | 0.091 to 0.248 | +/- 0.078 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 2.3% to 7.6% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.7% | 29.0% to 47.0% | +/- 9.0% |
| K% | 25.1% | 15.8% to 32.1% | +/- 8.1% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 2.3% to 9.5% | +/- 3.6% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.225 to 0.339 | +/- 0.057 |
vs LHP
26 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.098 |
| K% | 9.2% |
| BB% | 2.0% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |
vs RHP
103 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.105 |
| K% | 9.1% |
| BB% | 2.0% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |