Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Basallo, Samuel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 22
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
86
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.295 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.341 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.322 |
| Observed weight | 59% |
xwOBA
0.289
0.305
0.322
0.340
0.356
wOBA
0.335
0.351
0.370
0.388
0.404
ISO
0.176
0.193
0.213
0.232
0.249
K%
21.4%
23.2%
25.2%
27.2%
29.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.1%
92
+24 vs proj
Exit velocity91.7
91
Hard-hit%47.6%
85
+27 vs proj
xBA0.357
83
xSLG0.671
90
xwOBA0.341
79
BB%8.5%
49
Bat speed72.6
84
K%25.6%
34
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.5 · C
74
Catcher Throwing0.4 · C
69
Framing Runs-3.5 · C
12
Outs Above Avg0.0 · C
65
Pop Time1.9 · C
71
Range Runs-0.0 · C
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.9 · C
4
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.0% · rebadged research
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5% · rebadged research
57
Correct Decisions62.2% · rebadged research
16
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · borderline
27
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
68
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
42
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.385 · insufficient sample
1
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344 · validated
39
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
21
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
140 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.016 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.044 |
| Sample | 317 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 264 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.325 | 0.220 to 0.351 | +/- 0.065 |
| ISO | 0.195 | 0.091 to 0.248 | +/- 0.078 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 2.3% to 7.6% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.7% | 29.0% to 47.0% | +/- 9.0% |
| K% | 25.3% | 15.8% to 32.1% | +/- 8.1% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 2.3% to 9.5% | +/- 3.6% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.225 to 0.339 | +/- 0.057 |
vs LHP
26 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.098 |
| K% | 9.2% |
| BB% | 2.0% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |
vs RHP
103 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.105 |
| K% | 9.1% |
| BB% | 2.0% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |