Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Williams, Carson
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
30
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.247 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.217 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.241 |
| Observed weight | 19% |
xwOBA
0.168
0.203
0.241
0.280
0.314
wOBA
0.185
0.222
0.263
0.304
0.340
ISO
0.054
0.091
0.131
0.172
0.208
K%
19.5%
23.4%
27.7%
32.0%
36.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.5%
85
+26 vs proj
Exit velocity85.9
28
Hard-hit%35.3%
35
xBA0.257
6
xSLG0.431
24
xwOBA0.217
3
-33 vs proj
BB%3.8%
8
-23 vs proj
Bat speed70.1
59
K%32.1%
8
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
47
Range Runs-1.8 · SS
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.8 · SS
59
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.7% · rebadged research
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.8% · rebadged research
75
Correct Decisions73.4% · rebadged research
97
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
42
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
54
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
88
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
63
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
57
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
32 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.074 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.028 |
| Sample | 53 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 257 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.291 | 0.144 to 0.322 | +/- 0.089 |
| ISO | 0.146 | 0.062 to 0.251 | +/- 0.094 |
| Barrel% | 5.4% | 0.9% to 6.6% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.8% | 22.5% to 44.3% | +/- 10.9% |
| K% | 30.8% | 18.9% to 39.0% | +/- 10.0% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 2.4% to 9.7% | +/- 3.7% |
| BABIP | 0.303 | 0.219 to 0.351 | +/- 0.066 |
vs LHP
41 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.084 |
| K% | 12.2% |
| BB% | 2.6% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |
vs RHP
78 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.075 |
| K% | 12.8% |
| BB% | 1.9% |
| Barrel | 1.7% |