Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Wheeler, Zack

Bat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape

Primary
27.5% K%
Range
21.9% to 33.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
93
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
84
Arsenal6 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.08
ERA current pace2.13
ERA rolling p502.51
Observed weight60%
ERA
1.55 2.01 2.51 3.02 3.48
FIP
2.67 2.88 3.11 3.34 3.55
K%
26.3% 27.7% 29.3% 30.9% 32.3%
BB%
4.5% 5.1% 5.8% 6.4% 7.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.90
96
ERA2.13
95
BB%6.2%
85
K%30.4%
94
xwOBA allowed0.254
95 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
78 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
61
Hard-hit allowed34.7%
78
Whiff%26.4%
74
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+110
93
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Curveball Stuff+98
5
Cutter Stuff+106
84
Sinker Stuff+108
94
Slider Stuff+99
31
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wheeler, Zack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.254 2026-07-05: 0.2692026-07-06: 0.2692026-07-07: 0.2692026-07-08: 0.2692026-07-09: 0.2572026-07-10: 0.2572026-07-11: 0.2572026-07-12: 0.2572026-07-13: 0.2572026-07-14: 0.2542026-07-15: 0.2542026-07-16: 0.254 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wheeler, Zack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wheeler, Zack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.9%Sinker: 15.6%Split-Finger: 15.1%Sweeper: 14.4%Cutter: 11.0%Curveball: 8.1% FF36% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 36%SI 16%FS 15%ST 14%FC 11%CU 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wheeler, Zack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.3 mphFF95 mphSinker: 16% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mphSplit-Finger: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.4 mphFS87 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 81.3 mphST81 mphCutter: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.1 mphFC91 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 79.9 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.3% 347 110 qualified
SI 18.9% 155 108 limited sample
SL 14.6% 120 99 limited sample
FC 14.0% 115 106 limited sample
CB 10.1% 83 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.267 vs 0.239 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Sinker 17%, Sweeper 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.10
K% Δ+0.030
Sample92.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings147.4----
Batters Faced587----
K%27.5%21.9% to 33.7%+/- 5.9%
BB%6.2%4.2% to 8.1%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%25.7%22.6% to 30.6%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.220.93 to 1.88+/- 0.48
xwOBA Against0.2880.257 to 0.300+/- 0.022
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.2% to 10.9%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.232.13 to 4.80+/- 1.34
FIP3.382.45 to 3.67+/- 0.61
WHIP1.0500.814 to 1.340+/- 0.263
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3150 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%26.8%
BB%6.7%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

3137 career BF

xwOBA0.239
K%27.7%
BB%4.6%
Barrel6.1%