Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026

De La Cruz, Elly

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.339 xwOBA
Range
0.294 to 0.406
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced regular Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
95
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
83
Defense4 metrics
82
Speed4 metrics
54
Plate skills10 metrics
31
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.331
xwOBA current pace0.359
xwOBA rolling p500.349
Observed weight62%
xwOBA
0.319 0.333 0.349 0.364 0.378
wOBA
0.375 0.391 0.408 0.426 0.441
ISO
0.179 0.194 0.210 0.227 0.241
K%
25.6% 26.9% 28.3% 29.6% 30.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.6%
94 +16 vs proj
Exit velocity94.6
99
Hard-hit%54.4%
97
xBA0.397
96
xSLG0.714
95
xwOBA0.359
88
BB%9.6%
63
Bat speed73.6
93
K%28.4%
21
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
43
Arm Strength96.6 · SS
97
Outs Above Avg8.0 · SS
96
Range Runs5.9 · SS
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · SS
71
Bolts3.0 · SS
42
SB Success Rate69.2% · SS
25
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
77
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.2% · rebadged research
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.9% · rebadged research
13
Correct Decisions64.8% · rebadged research
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · borderline
10
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
49
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.326 · validated thin sample
1
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
25
Resists FastballwOBA 0.375 · validated
7
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
45
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA De La Cruz, Elly · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.359 2026-07-05: 0.3612026-07-06: 0.3612026-07-07: 0.3562026-07-08: 0.3562026-07-09: 0.3582026-07-10: 0.3632026-07-11: 0.3592026-07-12: 0.3602026-07-13: 0.3622026-07-14: 0.3592026-07-15: 0.3592026-07-16: 0.359 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Elly De La Cruz's tools (87) outpace production (84) by 3 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low
+9.7° Current 6° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

179 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart De La Cruz, Elly · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsPull 17%Center field third: 66% of plotted batted ballsCenter 66%Right field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsOppo 17% LF 328 CF 404 RF 325 2026-03-15 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 14.02026-03-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA -34.02026-03-15 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 81.5 / LA 52.02026-03-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 87.2 / LA 18.02026-03-18 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.1 / LA -18.02026-03-18 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 116.8 / LA 13.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.5 / LA 19.02026-03-20 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA -7.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 30.02026-03-21 · triple · SV · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 18.02026-03-21 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 112.4 / LA 2.02026-03-23 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 34.02026-03-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.3 / LA 24.02026-03-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA -6.02026-03-26 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 78.5 / LA 16.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball2026-03-28 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 24.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball2026-03-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 49.02026-03-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 110.1 / LA -9.02026-03-30 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 48.02026-03-31 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA -15.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.9 / LA 40.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 111.3 / LA 3.02026-03-31 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 41.02026-04-01 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.4 / LA 12.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 76.4 / LA 55.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -10.02026-04-03 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA -25.02026-04-03 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 107.5 / LA 20.02026-04-04 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 81.1 / LA 15.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 50.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 107.5 / LA -2.02026-04-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 95.1 / LA 13.02026-04-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.1 / LA -1.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 65.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 54.4 / LA 23.02026-04-06 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 98.7 / LA 15.02026-04-06 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 111.9 / LA -3.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA -1.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 85.6 / LA 25.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.2 / LA -20.02026-04-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA -17.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.1 / LA -12.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.4 / LA -28.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 91.9 / LA 25.02026-04-09 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 9.02026-04-09 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 94.1 / LA 38.02026-04-10 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.0 / LA 22.02026-04-10 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 100.8 / LA 21.02026-04-10 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -3.02026-04-11 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA -7.02026-04-11 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA -28.02026-04-11 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 26.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 65.3 / LA 25.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -9.02026-04-12 · single · CH · ground_ball2026-04-12 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.6 / LA 29.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 33.02026-04-14 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 12.02026-04-15 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 30.02026-04-16 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 4.02026-04-17 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 1.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 89.9 / LA 24.02026-04-17 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 112.2 / LA 18.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 60.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 95.0 / LA 79.02026-04-18 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 108.9 / LA -2.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 68.9 / LA -46.02026-04-19 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 86.0 / LA 23.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 42.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 0.02026-04-20 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -2.02026-04-20 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 63.5 / LA 36.02026-04-20 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 109.0 / LA -9.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 87.5 / LA -2.02026-04-21 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 111.6 / LA 20.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA -6.02026-04-21 · fielders choice · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA -5.02026-04-21 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 112.0 / LA 9.02026-04-21 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 35.02026-04-22 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.8 / LA -2.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 45.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 61.02026-04-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 112.6 / LA -1.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 109.9 / LA -11.02026-04-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.9 / LA 0.02026-04-25 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 107.6 / LA 29.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 57.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 115.3 / LA 10.02026-04-26 · single · FS · fly_ball · EV 76.8 / LA 39.02026-04-28 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 69.2 / LA 49.02026-04-28 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 2.02026-04-28 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 23.02026-04-29 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 52.02026-04-29 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 48.02026-04-30 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 74.7 / LA 15.02026-04-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 70.7 / LA 1.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.3 / LA -41.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -5.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 31.02026-05-02 · double · FS · ground_ball · EV 87.7 / LA 4.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 46.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 63.6 / LA -69.02026-05-04 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 105.4 / LA 10.02026-05-04 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 85.9 / LA 11.02026-05-04 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.7 / LA 7.02026-05-05 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 51.7 / LA -47.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.7 / LA 40.02026-05-05 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.2 / LA -12.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA -2.02026-05-06 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 25.02026-05-06 · fielders choice out · FS · ground_ball · EV 58.8 / LA -51.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA -11.02026-05-07 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 82.6 / LA 31.02026-05-07 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 31.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 30.02026-05-07 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 116.3 / LA 22.02026-05-08 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 9.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 15.02026-05-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.0 / LA 0.02026-05-09 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 3.02026-05-09 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 77.6 / LA 21.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball2026-05-10 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 109.0 / LA 8.02026-05-10 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 96.2 / LA 11.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 104.1 / LA -2.02026-05-10 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.5 / LA 3.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA -15.02026-05-12 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 4.02026-05-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 115.9 / LA 1.02026-05-13 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 110.7 / LA 0.02026-05-13 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 92.3 / LA 17.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 29.02026-05-13 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA -14.02026-05-14 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 68.5 / LA -6.02026-05-14 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 113.4 / LA 14.02026-05-14 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 14.02026-05-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 4.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 84.6 / LA 29.02026-05-15 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 26.02026-05-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -25.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 78.5 / LA 38.02026-05-16 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 9.02026-05-17 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.0 / LA 29.02026-05-17 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 77.2 / LA 31.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 41.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.3 / LA 34.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 51.02026-05-19 · triple · CH · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 20.02026-05-20 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 89.5 / LA -38.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 78.3 / LA 28.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 9.02026-05-23 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 78.6 / LA 23.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 111.7 / LA -3.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 83.1 / LA -10.02026-05-23 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 32.02026-05-23 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 25.02026-05-25 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 105.5 / LA -18.02026-05-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 108.7 / LA -15.02026-05-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 19.02026-05-26 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 59.4 / LA -7.02026-05-27 · field error · CH · ground_ball · LA -84.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 38.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 26.02026-05-31 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 72.6 / LA 28.02026-05-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 111.5 / LA 18.02026-06-24 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 109.8 / LA 13.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.8 / LA -3.02026-06-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 111.6 / LA -4.02026-06-24 · field out · CU · ground_ball2026-06-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 32.02026-06-26 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 26.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 27.02026-06-30 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.8 / LA 0.02026-06-30 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 113.9 / LA 14.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 36.02026-07-01 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 110.8 / LA -3.02026-07-01 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 109.2 / LA 15.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed De La Cruz, Elly · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 75.0 mph Hard swing rate 49% Whiff / swing 29% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile De La Cruz, Elly · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 27%27%Zone contact: 82%82%Contact: 73%73%Hard hit: 54%54% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.295 vs 0.257 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.021
wOBA Δ+0.070
Sample363 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances636----
Home Runs21----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3390.294 to 0.406+/- 0.056
ISO0.1790.120 to 0.255+/- 0.068
Barrel%7.1%4.3% to 9.0%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%48.3%41.0% to 54.2%+/- 6.6%
K%26.9%23.5% to 33.2%+/- 4.9%
BB%9.8%7.4% to 13.2%+/- 2.9%
BABIP0.3350.296 to 0.393+/- 0.048
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

573 career PA

xwOBA0.257
K%25.7%
BB%7.3%
Barrel4.3%
vs RHP

1314 career PA

xwOBA0.295
K%24.4%
BB%9.5%
Barrel6.4%