Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Lindor, Francisco
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.350 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.340 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.346 |
| Observed weight | 36% |
xwOBA
0.308
0.326
0.346
0.366
0.385
wOBA
0.304
0.330
0.359
0.388
0.414
ISO
0.120
0.142
0.165
0.189
0.210
K%
16.0%
17.6%
19.3%
21.0%
22.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.6%
61
+16 vs proj
Barrel%5.6%
58
-16 vs proj
Bat speed71.6
76
Exit velocity91.0
84
Hard-hit%43.8%
67
K%18.4%
72
xBA0.318
44
xSLG0.544
61
xwOBA0.340
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength77.5 · SS
5
Outs Above Avg3.0 · SS
88
Range Runs1.9 · SS
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · SS
12
Sprint Speed26.9 · SS
39
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.1% · rebadged research
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.4% · rebadged research
75
Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · borderline
17
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
25
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
56
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · insufficient sample
32
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
60
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.330 · validated
94
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
60
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
89 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.015 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| Sample | 125 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 658 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.355 | 0.301 to 0.404 | +/- 0.052 |
| ISO | 0.196 | 0.137 to 0.273 | +/- 0.068 |
| Barrel% | 6.9% | 4.7% to 9.0% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.0% | 41.6% to 51.6% | +/- 5.0% |
| K% | 18.1% | 15.5% to 24.4% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.7% to 11.7% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.253 to 0.338 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
2182 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.305 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |
vs RHP
5009 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.315 |
| K% | 17.5% |
| BB% | 8.2% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |