Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Fried, Max

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.2% K%
Range
18.9% to 28.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Balanced starter Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
78
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
74
Arsenal7 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.23
ERA current pace2.80
ERA rolling p502.95
Observed weight66%
ERA
2.09 2.50 2.95 3.40 3.80
FIP
2.29 2.62 2.99 3.36 3.68
K%
20.5% 21.6% 22.9% 24.1% 25.3%
BB%
6.3% 6.9% 7.6% 8.3% 8.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.05
89
ERA2.80
86
BB%8.1%
61
K%23.2%
59
xwOBA allowed0.246
97 +40 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.6%
99 +42 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
41
Hard-hit allowed32.1%
90
Whiff%22.1%
46
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+103
66
Cutter Stuff+102
54
Fastball Stuff+102
52
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Sinker Stuff+99
30
Changeup Stuff+101
47
Slider Stuff+105
75
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 22%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Fried, Max · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.246 2026-09-13: 0.2492026-09-14: 0.2492026-09-18: 0.2452026-09-19: 0.2452026-09-20: 0.2452026-09-21: 0.2452026-09-22: 0.2452026-09-23: 0.2462026-09-24: 0.2462026-09-25: 0.2462026-09-26: 0.2462026-09-27: 0.246 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Fried, Max · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fried, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 22.2%Sinker: 20.7%4-Seam Fastball: 17.7%Curveball: 13.4%Changeup: 12.4%Sweeper: 12.3% FC22% · 92 mphprimary pitch FC 22%SI 21%FF 18%CU 13%CH 12%ST 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fried, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Cutter: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.8 mphFC92 mphSinker: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.8 mphFF95 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 68″ drop, 73.7 mphCU74 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.5 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 79.9 mphST80 mphSlider: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.4 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 22.5% 331 102 qualified
SI 21.9% 322 99 qualified
FB 16.7% 246 102 qualified
CB 13.6% 201 103 qualified
SL 12.8% 189 105 limited sample
CH 12.5% 184 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 27%, Sinker 18%, Curveball 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.64
K% Δ+0.010
Sample115.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.9----
Batters Faced605----
K%22.2%18.9% to 28.7%+/- 4.9%
BB%7.2%5.7% to 9.5%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%23.1%20.1% to 27.7%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.090.45 to 1.64+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3080.250 to 0.326+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed7.1%4.7% to 9.7%+/- 2.5%
ERA3.442.49 to 4.81+/- 1.16
FIP3.582.32 to 4.20+/- 0.94
WHIP1.2231.040 to 1.450+/- 0.205
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1162 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%24.4%
BB%6.8%
Barrel6.6%
vs RHH

3790 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%20.3%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.1%