Latest run 2026-09-26
Summary rows 5
Daily story feed 25
Component scorecard
Latest error profile
| Level |
Component |
Sample |
MAE |
Bias |
| player |
pitcher_k_pctprojection validation |
6385 |
0.031 |
+0.009 |
| player |
player_eraprojection validation |
6385 |
0.847 |
-0.461 |
| player |
player_hrprojection validation |
15544 |
3.639 |
-0.243 |
| player |
player_k_pctprojection validation |
15544 |
0.030 |
+0.002 |
| team |
team_wins_paceprojection validation |
3450 |
5.652 |
-0.002 |
Monthly drift
Error by month
| Month | Component | MAE | Bias |
|---|
| 2026-04 |
pitcher_k_pct320 samples |
0.043 |
+0.009 |
| 2026-04 |
player_era320 samples |
1.271 |
-0.630 |
| 2026-04 |
player_hr708 samples |
1.634 |
-0.433 |
| 2026-04 |
player_k_pct708 samples |
0.041 |
+0.004 |
| 2026-04 |
team_wins_pace120 samples |
2.196 |
+0.005 |
| 2026-05 |
pitcher_k_pct885 samples |
0.034 |
+0.010 |
| 2026-05 |
player_era885 samples |
0.961 |
-0.548 |
| 2026-05 |
player_hr1977 samples |
2.531 |
-0.617 |
| 2026-05 |
player_k_pct1977 samples |
0.034 |
+0.003 |
| 2026-05 |
team_wins_pace360 samples |
3.711 |
-0.004 |
| 2026-06 |
pitcher_k_pct1061 samples |
0.030 |
+0.008 |
| 2026-06 |
player_era1061 samples |
0.844 |
-0.478 |
Live-state context
Current story feed
2026-09-26
pitcher_breakout
Fuentes, Didier is -4.17 ERA versus projection
#1
2026-09-26
pitcher_breakout
Smith, Hagen is -3.41 ERA versus projection
#2
2026-09-26
pitcher_breakout
Blackburn, Paul is -2.90 ERA versus projection
#3
2026-09-26
team_pace_ahead
TB is +25.2 wins over projected pace through 160 games
#4
2026-09-26
team_pace_ahead
MIL is +19.5 wins over projected pace through 160 games
#5
2026-09-26
team_pace_ahead
CWS is +16.5 wins over projected pace through 160 games
#6
