Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Pivetta, Nick

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
25.2% K%
Range
21.8% to 32.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
86
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal5 metrics
78
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.60
ERA current pace2.86
ERA rolling p503.30
Observed weight40%
ERA
2.28 2.77 3.30 3.84 4.33
FIP
2.61 3.03 3.50 3.97 4.39
K%
23.1% 24.9% 26.8% 28.8% 30.6%
BB%
4.5% 5.2% 6.0% 6.8% 7.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.15
80
ERA2.86
85
BB%5.6%
92 +16 vs proj
K%28.0%
86
xwOBA allowed0.277
86 +35 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.4%
5 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
45
Hard-hit allowed40.0%
38
Whiff%18.6%
17 -34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+110
96
Curveball Stuff+105
91
Cutter Stuff+101
43
Mithrandir Stuff+109
96
Slider Stuff+103
63
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pivetta, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.277 2026-09-13: 0.2422026-09-14: 0.2632026-09-18: 0.2632026-09-19: 0.2652026-09-20: 0.2652026-09-21: 0.2652026-09-22: 0.2652026-09-23: 0.2652026-09-24: 0.2652026-09-25: 0.2652026-09-26: 0.2772026-09-27: 0.277 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pivetta, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pivetta, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.7%Curveball: 21.7%Cutter: 13.4%Sweeper: 12.0%Sinker: 1.2%Slider: 0.9% FF51% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 51%CU 22%FC 13%ST 12%SI 1%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pivetta, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 79.2 mphCU79 mphCutter: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.2 mphFC91 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 81.8 mphST82 mphSinker: 1% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mphSlider: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.5 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 54.5% 267 110 qualified
CB 21.2% 104 105 limited sample
FC 12.2% 60 101 limited sample
SL 11.0% 54 103 limited sample
SI 1.0% 5 116 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 48%, Curveball 22%, Sweeper 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.82
K% Δ+0.028
Sample38.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.0----
Batters Faced585----
K%25.2%21.8% to 32.6%+/- 5.4%
BB%7.1%5.2% to 9.1%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%22.6%18.8% to 26.8%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.390.80 to 2.07+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3120.275 to 0.334+/- 0.030
Barrel% Allowed9.2%6.7% to 14.0%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.682.38 to 5.22+/- 1.42
FIP3.853.06 to 5.53+/- 1.24
WHIP1.1260.892 to 1.368+/- 0.238
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2398 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%25.7%
BB%7.3%
Barrel11.1%
vs RHH

3019 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%24.9%
BB%6.1%
Barrel10.8%