Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Fulford, Braxton
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team COL
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
20
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.258 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.209 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.243 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
xwOBA
0.194
0.217
0.243
0.269
0.292
wOBA
0.244
0.273
0.305
0.337
0.365
ISO
0.064
0.093
0.126
0.158
0.188
K%
23.8%
27.0%
30.6%
34.2%
37.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
40
Exit velocity85.4
24
Hard-hit%34.0%
31
xBA0.255
5
xSLG0.418
19
xwOBA0.209
2
-30 vs proj
BB%8.4%
50
+20 vs proj
Bat speed70.1
58
K%36.8%
3
-15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Pop Time1.9 · C
78
Blocking Runs0.3 · C
Small sample
Catcher Throwing-0.9 · C
Small sample
Framing Runs-1.8 · C
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · C
11
Sprint Speed28.6 · C
82
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.3% · rebadged research
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions68.9% · rebadged research
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
54
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
71
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample
80
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
67
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated
73
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
19
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
31 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.078 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.017 |
| Sample | 95 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 263 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.287 | 0.183 to 0.317 | +/- 0.067 |
| ISO | 0.143 | 0.047 to 0.220 | +/- 0.086 |
| Barrel% | 4.2% | 1.0% to 6.1% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 22.4% to 46.1% | +/- 11.9% |
| K% | 29.5% | 18.0% to 36.7% | +/- 9.3% |
| BB% | 6.7% | 3.3% to 10.0% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.296 | 0.207 to 0.370 | +/- 0.081 |
vs LHP
46 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.095 |
| K% | 10.0% |
| BB% | 2.9% |
| Barrel | 1.2% |
vs RHP
84 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.086 |
| K% | 11.4% |
| BB% | 2.5% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |