Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Machado, Manny
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team SD
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.331 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.317 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.323 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.298
0.310
0.323
0.337
0.349
wOBA
0.251
0.269
0.288
0.308
0.326
ISO
0.139
0.155
0.172
0.189
0.205
K%
18.9%
20.3%
21.8%
23.3%
24.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.5%
77
+38 vs proj
Barrel%5.3%
54
-23 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
80
Exit velocity89.8
67
Hard-hit%44.4%
68
-15 vs proj
K%22.6%
46
-15 vs proj
xBA0.315
40
xSLG0.544
61
xwOBA0.317
57
-18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.5 · 3B
50
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
88
Range Runs2.1 · 3B
78
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · 3B
29
Sprint Speed24.5 · 3B
2
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.8% · rebadged research
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.7% · rebadged research
79
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
74
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.257 · borderline
94
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
76
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
34
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
46
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
34
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.314 · validated
98
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
154 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.051 |
| Sample | 243 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 621 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 26 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.340 | 0.313 to 0.382 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.181 | 0.129 to 0.249 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 7.4% | 5.6% to 10.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.7% | 43.7% to 55.3% | +/- 5.8% |
| K% | 20.0% | 15.8% to 25.1% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 7.9% | 5.5% to 10.5% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.295 | 0.254 to 0.343 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
1866 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.303 |
| K% | 17.0% |
| BB% | 8.3% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |
vs RHP
5372 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.293 |
| K% | 17.1% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 7.0% |