Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Machado, Manny
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team SD
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
70
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.331 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.327 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 76% |
xwOBA
0.309
0.318
0.328
0.338
0.348
wOBA
0.298
0.309
0.321
0.333
0.344
ISO
0.162
0.172
0.183
0.193
0.203
K%
19.3%
20.2%
21.2%
22.2%
23.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
73
Exit velocity89.9
76
Hard-hit%43.3%
74
xBA0.321
54
xSLG0.555
68
xwOBA0.327
75
BB%11.3%
84
+42 vs proj
Bat speed72.7
87
K%21.3%
60
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.3 · 3B
53
Outs Above Avg10.0 · 3B
96
Range Runs7.8 · 3B
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-5.1 · 3B
1
Sprint Speed25.2 · 3B
7
SB Success Rate33.3% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.2% · rebadged research
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5% · rebadged research
78
Correct Decisions70.0% · rebadged research
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.374 · validated
9
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
82
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
48
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
75
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
68
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
74
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
288 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.019 |
| Sample | 681 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 621 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 26 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.340 | 0.313 to 0.382 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.181 | 0.129 to 0.249 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 7.4% | 5.6% to 10.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.7% | 43.7% to 55.3% | +/- 5.8% |
| K% | 20.0% | 15.8% to 25.1% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 7.9% | 5.5% to 10.5% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.295 | 0.254 to 0.343 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
1866 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.303 |
| K% | 17.0% |
| BB% | 8.3% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |
vs RHP
5372 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.293 |
| K% | 17.1% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 7.0% |