Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Dunn, Blake
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 28
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
23
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.278 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.280 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.279 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
xwOBA
0.230
0.253
0.279
0.304
0.327
wOBA
0.297
0.320
0.346
0.371
0.394
ISO
0.071
0.097
0.125
0.154
0.179
K%
18.1%
20.4%
23.1%
25.7%
28.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
12
-33 vs proj
Exit velocity84.4
13
Hard-hit%32.1%
22
-20 vs proj
xBA0.320
49
xSLG0.421
19
xwOBA0.280
23
-32 vs proj
BB%6.3%
22
-15 vs proj
Bat speed66.6
17
K%21.5%
56
+15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · CF
81
Arm Strength94.2 · CF
62
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
11
Range Runs1.5 · CF
67
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.0 · CF
40
Bolts27.0 · CF
87
SB Success Rate62.5% · CF
16
Sprint Speed29.6 · CF
97
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.4% · rebadged research
34
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.6% · rebadged research
27
Correct Decisions64.1% · rebadged research
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
75
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
44
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294 · validated thin sample
18
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
64
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351 · validated
26
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
26
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
71 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.031 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.035 |
| Sample | 158 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 250 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.311 | 0.176 to 0.329 | +/- 0.077 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.054 to 0.234 | +/- 0.090 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 0.6% to 6.4% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.2% | 18.6% to 42.9% | +/- 12.1% |
| K% | 24.3% | 17.2% to 33.3% | +/- 8.0% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 3.5% to 11.4% | +/- 3.9% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.203 to 0.354 | +/- 0.076 |
vs LHP
57 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.100 |
| K% | 10.9% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 1.1% |
vs RHP
69 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.096 |
| K% | 10.4% |
| BB% | 3.0% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |