Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Abreu, Bryan

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
31.0% K%
Range
24.7% to 40.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal4 metrics
23
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.20
ERA current pace3.77
ERA rolling p503.51
Observed weight54%
ERA
2.05 2.74 3.51 4.28 4.97
FIP
2.48 3.13 3.84 4.56 5.21
K%
27.0% 28.9% 31.0% 33.1% 35.1%
BB%
10.8% 12.1% 13.4% 14.8% 16.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
32
ERA3.77
59
BB%16.5%
2 -32 vs proj
K%29.5%
91
xwOBA allowed0.312
50 -37 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
72 +35 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
71
Hard-hit allowed40.1%
37
Whiff%30.8%
94
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+96
15
Mithrandir Stuff+98
21
Slider Stuff+102
50
Cutter Stuff+95
8
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Abreu, Bryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.312 2026-09-12: 0.3172026-09-13: 0.3172026-09-14: 0.3172026-09-18: 0.3122026-09-19: 0.3122026-09-20: 0.3122026-09-21: 0.3142026-09-22: 0.3142026-09-23: 0.3142026-09-24: 0.3112026-09-25: 0.3112026-09-26: 0.312 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Abreu, Bryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abreu, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 45.0%4-Seam Fastball: 44.0%Cutter: 10.7%Changeup: 0.3% SL45% · 87 mphprimary pitch SL 45%FF 44%FC 11%CH 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abreu, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 45% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 86.5 mphSL87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.7 mphFF96 mphCutter: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.0 mphFC93 mphChangeup: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.2 mphCH90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.2% 362 96 qualified
SL 42.7% 321 102 qualified
FC 8.9% 67 95 limited sample
CH 0.1% 1 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Slider 48%, Sinker 1%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.55
K% Δ-0.015
Sample64.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.6----
Batters Faced176----
K%31.0%24.7% to 40.4%+/- 7.8%
BB%10.2%5.3% to 14.5%+/- 4.6%
Whiff%33.2%30.1% to 41.7%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.080.55 to 1.90+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.2730.225 to 0.364+/- 0.069
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.7% to 13.1%+/- 4.2%
ERA3.220.91 to 5.03+/- 2.06
FIP2.961.89 to 5.73+/- 1.92
WHIP1.1700.901 to 1.606+/- 0.353
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

741 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%31.1%
BB%11.2%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

803 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%31.0%
BB%8.7%
Barrel9.2%