Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Abreu, Bryan

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
31.0% K%
Range
24.7% to 40.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
24
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal4 metrics
22
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.20
ERA current pace5.81
ERA rolling p504.24
Observed weight40%
ERA
2.76 3.46 4.24 5.02 5.73
FIP
2.86 3.51 4.24 4.97 5.63
K%
25.7% 28.1% 30.8% 33.4% 35.8%
BB%
10.7% 12.2% 13.9% 15.6% 17.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.79
3
ERA5.81
13
BB%20.1%
0 -32 vs proj
K%27.7%
82
xwOBA allowed0.344
21 -67 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.6%
52
Fastball velo95.1
62
Hard-hit allowed46.8%
6
Whiff%29.6%
90
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+94
10
Slider Stuff+101
43
Cutter Stuff+98
18
Mithrandir Stuff+97
18
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Abreu, Bryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.344 2026-07-05: 0.3522026-07-06: 0.3522026-07-07: 0.3522026-07-08: 0.3522026-07-09: 0.3452026-07-10: 0.3452026-07-11: 0.3452026-07-12: 0.3452026-07-13: 0.3452026-07-14: 0.3452026-07-15: 0.3452026-07-16: 0.344 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Abreu, Bryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abreu, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 47.8%4-Seam Fastball: 46.6%Cutter: 5.0%Changeup: 0.6% SL48% · 86 mphprimary pitch SL 48%FF 47%FC 5%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abreu, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 48% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.1 mphFF95 mphCutter: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.9 mphFC92 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.2 mphCH90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.1% 217 94 qualified
SL 46.8% 211 101 qualified
FC 4.9% 22 98 limited sample
CH 0.2% 1 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Slider 48%, Sinker 1%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.59
K% Δ-0.033
Sample33.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings42.0----
Batters Faced177----
K%31.0%24.7% to 40.4%+/- 7.8%
BB%10.2%5.3% to 14.5%+/- 4.6%
Whiff%33.3%30.1% to 41.7%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.060.55 to 1.90+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.2730.225 to 0.364+/- 0.069
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.7% to 13.1%+/- 4.2%
ERA3.220.91 to 5.03+/- 2.06
FIP2.961.89 to 5.73+/- 1.92
WHIP1.1700.901 to 1.606+/- 0.353
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

741 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%31.1%
BB%11.2%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

803 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%31.0%
BB%8.7%
Barrel9.2%