Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

deGrom, Jacob

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
25.5% K%
Range
19.5% to 34.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
82
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
72
Arsenal6 metrics
88
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.30
ERA current pace3.49
ERA rolling p503.42
Observed weight63%
ERA
2.04 2.69 3.42 4.15 4.80
FIP
2.35 2.96 3.64 4.31 4.92
K%
25.0% 26.5% 28.3% 30.0% 31.6%
BB%
4.3% 4.9% 5.5% 6.2% 6.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.03
88
ERA3.49
64
BB%5.4%
93
K%30.2%
93 +22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.289
72
Barrel allowed8.9%
32
Fastball velo97.2
88
Hard-hit allowed44.0%
18
Whiff%32.3%
97 +26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+102
46
Fastball Stuff+111
97
Mithrandir Stuff+110
98
Slider Stuff+111
96
Curveball Stuff+105
92
Sinker Stuff+112
99
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed deGrom, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.289 2026-07-05: 0.2892026-07-06: 0.2892026-07-07: 0.2892026-07-08: 0.2892026-07-09: 0.2892026-07-10: 0.2892026-07-11: 0.2892026-07-12: 0.2892026-07-13: 0.2892026-07-14: 0.2892026-07-15: 0.2892026-07-16: 0.289 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile deGrom, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal deGrom, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 42.1%Slider: 36.1%Changeup: 13.6%Curveball: 6.2%Sinker: 1.9% FF42% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 42%SL 36%CH 14%CU 6%SI 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal deGrom, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 97.2 mphFF97 mphSlider: 36% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 91.1 mphSL91 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.8 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 80.9 mphCU81 mphSinker: 2% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.1 mphSI96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.8% 556 111 qualified
SL 35.7% 475 111 qualified
CH 15.1% 201 102 qualified
CB 6.2% 82 105 limited sample
SI 1.1% 15 112 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 46%, Slider 38%, Changeup 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.26
K% Δ+0.047
Sample99.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.3----
Batters Faced552----
K%25.5%19.5% to 34.1%+/- 7.3%
BB%6.2%3.9% to 8.4%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%25.7%23.0% to 32.8%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.410.94 to 2.22+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3060.230 to 0.338+/- 0.054
Barrel% Allowed8.7%4.8% to 12.3%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.751.45 to 5.24+/- 1.90
FIP4.072.85 to 6.37+/- 1.76
WHIP1.0310.747 to 1.395+/- 0.324
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2838 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%25.6%
BB%5.7%
Barrel10.4%
vs RHH

2903 career BF

xwOBA0.252
K%23.1%
BB%4.5%
Barrel8.0%