Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Hoerner, Nico
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CHC
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.315 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.337 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
xwOBA
0.302
0.314
0.328
0.341
0.353
wOBA
0.329
0.346
0.365
0.385
0.402
ISO
0.090
0.103
0.117
0.131
0.144
K%
6.8%
7.7%
8.8%
9.8%
10.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.0%
65
+46 vs proj
Barrel%1.7%
11
Bat speed66.9
20
Exit velocity85.8
21
Hard-hit%28.6%
11
K%7.6%
100
xBA0.323
50
xSLG0.414
18
xwOBA0.337
73
+16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
58
Arm Strength84.0 · 2B
37
Outs Above Avg8.0 · 2B
99
Range Runs6.1 · 2B
97
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.5 · 2B
97
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
93
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
78
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.4% · rebadged research
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.1% · rebadged research
12
Correct Decisions63.3% · rebadged research
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.335 · borderline
2
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
69
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.231 · validated thin sample
99
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · insufficient sample
41
Resists FastballwOBA 0.317 · validated
88
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.382 · validated
8
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
219 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.021 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.049 |
| Sample | 289 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 612 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.316 | 0.292 to 0.361 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.097 | 0.081 to 0.188 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% | 1.4% | 0.8% to 3.8% | +/- 1.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.1% | 26.8% to 38.4% | +/- 5.8% |
| K% | 9.5% | 7.9% to 15.5% | +/- 3.8% |
| BB% | 5.9% | 4.1% to 9.1% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.300 | 0.272 to 0.352 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
749 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.298 |
| K% | 8.4% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |
vs RHP
2275 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.273 |
| K% | 8.4% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 1.5% |