Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Hoerner, Nico
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CHC
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
26
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.315 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.318 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.317 |
| Observed weight | 67% |
xwOBA
0.295
0.306
0.317
0.329
0.339
wOBA
0.297
0.311
0.326
0.341
0.354
ISO
0.086
0.096
0.108
0.119
0.129
K%
7.1%
7.9%
8.8%
9.7%
10.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.1%
5
Exit velocity86.1
27
Hard-hit%28.4%
12
xBA0.312
39
xSLG0.395
11
xwOBA0.318
63
BB%8.7%
51
+31 vs proj
Bat speed67.0
19
K%8.0%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
53
Arm Strength84.0 · 2B
33
Outs Above Avg8.0 · 2B
96
Range Runs6.2 · 2B
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.1 · 2B
95
SB Success Rate92.9% · 2B
84
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
77
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.6% · rebadged research
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9% · rebadged research
18
Correct Decisions63.6% · rebadged research
26
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.336 · borderline
3
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
83
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.237 · validated thin sample
99
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
28
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
34
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
253 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.009 |
| Sample | 438 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 612 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.316 | 0.292 to 0.361 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.097 | 0.081 to 0.188 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% | 1.4% | 0.8% to 3.8% | +/- 1.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.1% | 26.8% to 38.4% | +/- 5.8% |
| K% | 9.5% | 7.9% to 15.5% | +/- 3.8% |
| BB% | 5.9% | 4.1% to 9.1% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.300 | 0.272 to 0.352 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
749 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.298 |
| K% | 8.4% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |
vs RHP
2275 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.273 |
| K% | 8.4% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 1.5% |