Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Tucker, Kyle
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team LAD
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.378 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.324 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.349 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.320
0.333
0.349
0.364
0.378
wOBA
0.319
0.337
0.357
0.378
0.396
ISO
0.151
0.166
0.183
0.200
0.215
K%
14.5%
15.7%
17.0%
18.4%
19.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.4%
82
Barrel%4.2%
39
-37 vs proj
Bat speed68.7
36
Exit velocity89.3
60
Hard-hit%40.1%
49
K%18.5%
71
xBA0.318
43
xSLG0.477
39
xwOBA0.324
62
-28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.7 · RF
94
Arm Strength90.3 · RF
27
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · RF
3
Range Runs-3.3 · RF
8
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · RF
71
Sprint Speed26.4 · RF
25
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.6% · rebadged research
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.0% · rebadged research
94
Correct Decisions73.7% · rebadged research
95
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · borderline
17
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · insufficient sample
12
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.243 · validated thin sample
99
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · insufficient sample
17
Resists FastballwOBA 0.358 · validated
19
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
27
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
170 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.050 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.017 |
| Sample | 259 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 555 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 24 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.374 | 0.329 to 0.419 | +/- 0.045 |
| ISO | 0.206 | 0.168 to 0.290 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 5.2% to 10.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.8% | 36.9% to 50.1% | +/- 6.6% |
| K% | 15.9% | 12.6% to 21.0% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 13.1% | 11.0% to 16.4% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.274 | 0.243 to 0.314 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
1234 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.304 |
| K% | 12.9% |
| BB% | 10.3% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |
vs RHP
2295 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.325 |
| K% | 12.8% |
| BB% | 13.0% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |