Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Tucker, Kyle
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team LAD
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
58
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.378 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.336 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.350 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.325
0.337
0.350
0.364
0.376
wOBA
0.318
0.333
0.349
0.365
0.379
ISO
0.138
0.150
0.164
0.177
0.190
K%
15.9%
17.0%
18.2%
19.3%
20.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
38
-41 vs proj
Exit velocity89.0
60
Hard-hit%39.6%
52
xBA0.341
71
xSLG0.507
49
xwOBA0.336
75
-20 vs proj
BB%12.5%
87
Bat speed68.7
37
K%19.8%
67
-17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.5 · RF
90
Arm Strength92.5 · RF
49
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · RF
2
Range Runs-4.5 · RF
7
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · RF
64
Sprint Speed26.2 · RF
22
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1% · rebadged research
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.9% · rebadged research
91
Correct Decisions73.3% · rebadged research
95
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
92
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · borderline
20
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.302 · insufficient sample
8
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
86
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample
23
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated
70
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
189 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.039 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.025 |
| Sample | 400 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 555 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 24 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.374 | 0.329 to 0.419 | +/- 0.045 |
| ISO | 0.206 | 0.168 to 0.290 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 5.2% to 10.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.8% | 36.9% to 50.1% | +/- 6.6% |
| K% | 15.9% | 12.6% to 21.0% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 13.1% | 11.0% to 16.4% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.274 | 0.243 to 0.314 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
1234 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.304 |
| K% | 12.9% |
| BB% | 10.3% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |
vs RHP
2295 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.325 |
| K% | 12.8% |
| BB% | 13.0% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |