Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team CLE
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.262 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.350 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.309 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.270
0.289
0.309
0.329
0.348
wOBA
0.370
0.389
0.410
0.431
0.450
ISO
0.129
0.153
0.179
0.206
0.230
K%
9.7%
12.1%
14.8%
17.5%
20.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.5%
77
+35 vs proj
Barrel%5.2%
52
Bat speed69.6
48
Exit velocity89.6
62
Hard-hit%39.9%
48
K%11.1%
96
+37 vs proj
xBA0.325
52
xSLG0.479
40
xwOBA0.350
80
+41 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · RF
57
Arm Strength89.5 · RF
21
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
8
Range Runs-1.7 · RF
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · RF
62
Sprint Speed26.7 · RF
33
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.2% · rebadged research
89
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3% · rebadged research
69
Correct Decisions71.1% · rebadged research
89
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.336 · borderline
2
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.258 · insufficient sample
94
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.242 · validated thin sample
99
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample
88
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372 · validated
9
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.393 · validated
4
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
187 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.051 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.111 |
| Sample | 252 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 205 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.299 | 0.138 to 0.278 | +/- 0.070 |
| ISO | 0.166 | 0.034 to 0.238 | +/- 0.102 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 0.8% to 6.3% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.9% | 18.9% to 46.4% | +/- 13.7% |
| K% | 20.5% | 7.6% to 28.9% | +/- 10.7% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 2.8% to 11.9% | +/- 4.6% |
| BABIP | 0.311 | 0.166 to 0.355 | +/- 0.095 |
vs LHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.011 |
| K% | 0.8% |
| BB% | 1.1% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |
vs RHP
16 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.012 |
| K% | 0.7% |
| BB% | 1.4% |
| Barrel | 0.7% |