Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / KC · 2026
Witt Jr.., Bobby
Impact bat with above-average thump
Team KC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.366 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.395 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.382 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.352
0.366
0.382
0.398
0.412
wOBA
0.343
0.360
0.380
0.400
0.418
ISO
0.170
0.186
0.203
0.221
0.237
K%
15.7%
16.8%
18.1%
19.3%
20.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
49
+16 vs proj
Barrel%9.6%
92
Bat speed72.0
79
Exit velocity93.8
97
Hard-hit%55.4%
98
+15 vs proj
K%18.5%
71
xBA0.392
94
xSLG0.674
89
xwOBA0.395
96
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength94.0 · SS
92
Outs Above Avg14.0 · SS
100
Range Runs12.1 · SS
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.2 · SS
94
Bolts52.0 · SS
100
SB Success Rate87.5% · SS
74
Sprint Speed30.5 · SS
100
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1% · rebadged research
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3% · rebadged research
38
Correct Decisions62.7% · rebadged research
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · borderline
20
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · insufficient sample
16
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.323 · validated thin sample
1
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
14
Resists FastballwOBA 0.357 · validated
19
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
44
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
188 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.001 |
| Sample | 270 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 630 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 25 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.380 | 0.326 to 0.422 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.208 | 0.167 to 0.295 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 8.7% | 6.8% to 11.8% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.6% | 41.3% to 54.3% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 16.9% | 14.7% to 22.3% | +/- 3.8% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 5.8% to 10.3% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.323 | 0.293 to 0.370 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
606 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.326 |
| K% | 15.2% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 7.6% |
vs RHP
2243 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.331 |
| K% | 14.6% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 8.7% |