Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Brown, Hunter

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.5% K%
Range
22.7% to 32.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal6 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.45
ERA current pace3.57
ERA rolling p503.50
Observed weight42%
ERA
2.60 3.03 3.50 3.97 4.39
FIP
3.35 3.62 3.91 4.21 4.48
K%
22.9% 24.5% 26.3% 28.1% 29.7%
BB%
8.7% 9.6% 10.6% 11.6% 12.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
23
ERA3.57
60
BB%14.4%
6 -56 vs proj
K%25.9%
73
xwOBA allowed0.302
64
Barrel allowed6.0%
76 +18 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
71
Hard-hit allowed41.0%
36
Whiff%24.1%
58
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+98
20
Curveball Stuff+102
42
Fastball Stuff+111
96
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
Sinker Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+108
91
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Brown, Hunter · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.302 2026-07-06: 0.2882026-07-07: 0.2882026-07-08: 0.2882026-07-09: 0.2882026-07-10: 0.2882026-07-11: 0.2882026-07-12: 0.3022026-07-13: 0.3022026-07-14: 0.3022026-07-15: 0.3022026-07-16: 0.3022026-07-17: 0.302 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Brown, Hunter · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brown, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.3%Sinker: 28.2%Knuckle Curve: 19.8%Changeup: 9.7%Slider: 8.9%Cutter: 0.1% FF33% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 33%SI 28%KC 20%CH 10%SL 9%FC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brown, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.9 mphFF96 mphSinker: 28% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 95.5 mphSI96 mphKnuckle Curve: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 82.8 mphKC83 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.2 mphCH87 mphSlider: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.8 mphSL90 mphCutter: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.7 mphFC96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 32.8% 87 100 limited sample
FB 31.7% 84 111 limited sample
CB 19.2% 51 102 limited sample
SL 10.2% 27 108 limited sample
CH 6.0% 16 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Sinker 23%, Knuckle Curve 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.31
K% Δ-0.006
Sample38.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings147.5----
Batters Faced617----
K%26.5%22.7% to 32.6%+/- 4.9%
BB%7.9%6.3% to 10.6%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%24.6%21.4% to 29.0%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.210.79 to 1.77+/- 0.49
xwOBA Against0.2950.272 to 0.330+/- 0.029
Barrel% Allowed7.2%4.9% to 9.8%+/- 2.4%
ERA3.262.61 to 5.11+/- 1.25
FIP3.442.86 to 4.43+/- 0.79
WHIP1.1511.032 to 1.444+/- 0.206
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1216 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%26.4%
BB%9.6%
Barrel6.8%
vs RHH

1152 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%24.3%
BB%6.6%
Barrel6.1%