Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

King, Michael

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.9% K%
Range
21.0% to 31.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal5 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.42
ERA current pace3.41
ERA rolling p503.41
Observed weight66%
ERA
2.46 2.91 3.41 3.92 4.37
FIP
3.51 3.77 4.07 4.36 4.62
K%
19.8% 20.9% 22.1% 23.3% 24.5%
BB%
7.5% 8.2% 8.9% 9.6% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
67
ERA3.41
67
BB%9.6%
37 -25 vs proj
K%20.3%
34 -25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.328
35
Barrel allowed8.6%
37
Fastball velo93.3
30
Hard-hit allowed35.2%
75
Whiff%22.1%
44 -20 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+102
46
Fastball Stuff+99
29
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Sinker Stuff+105
72
Slider Stuff+101
42
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed King, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.328 2026-07-06: 0.3292026-07-07: 0.3292026-07-08: 0.3292026-07-09: 0.3292026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3292026-07-12: 0.3292026-07-13: 0.3292026-07-14: 0.3292026-07-15: 0.3292026-07-16: 0.3282026-07-17: 0.328 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile King, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal King, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 29.9%Changeup: 26.9%4-Seam Fastball: 18.9%Sweeper: 18.9%Slider: 5.4% SI30% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 30%CH 27%FF 19%ST 19%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal King, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 92.9 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.3 mphCH86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphSweeper: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 81.9 mphST82 mphSlider: 5% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.6 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 28.0% 335 105 qualified
CH 26.6% 319 102 qualified
SL 25.9% 310 101 qualified
FB 19.5% 234 99 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 30%, 4-Seam Fastball 25%, Changeup 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.19
K% Δ-0.036
Sample111.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.2----
Batters Faced304----
K%23.9%21.0% to 31.1%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.0%5.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%24.7%21.8% to 29.2%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.240.89 to 1.99+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3160.271 to 0.338+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.2% to 11.4%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.602.32 to 4.88+/- 1.28
FIP3.802.81 to 4.31+/- 0.75
WHIP1.2331.017 to 1.428+/- 0.206
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1066 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%23.7%
BB%8.6%
Barrel8.2%
vs RHH

1221 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%25.5%
BB%6.6%
Barrel8.1%