Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 29%, Sinker 28%, 4-Seam Fastball 28%.
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026
Kirby, George
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.59 |
| ERA current pace | 3.54 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.56 |
| Observed weight | 59% |
ERA
2.54
3.02
3.56
4.10
4.58
FIP
3.02
3.29
3.59
3.90
4.17
K%
18.1%
19.5%
21.1%
22.7%
24.2%
BB%
4.3%
4.9%
5.5%
6.2%
6.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.8%
88
Barrel allowed5.5%
77
+38 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
85
Hard-hit allowed43.9%
23
K%19.5%
28
-33 vs proj
Whiff%20.0%
24
-26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.294
68
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+108
94
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
6Pitches
2026Season
31%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 31.3% | 319 | 107 | qualified |
| SL | 27.2% | 277 | 109 | qualified |
| SI | 19.6% | 200 | 108 | qualified |
| CB | 10.3% | 105 | 102 | limited sample |
| CH | 7.5% | 76 | 106 | limited sample |
| FC | 4.1% | 42 | 99 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.10 |
| K% Δ | -0.048 |
| Sample | 83.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 145.9 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 609 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.2% | 19.7% to 32.3% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 4.8% | 2.9% to 6.6% | +/- 1.9% |
| Whiff% | 23.1% | 19.3% to 28.6% | +/- 4.6% |
| HR/9 | 1.20 | 0.87 to 1.96 | +/- 0.55 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.308 | 0.270 to 0.339 | +/- 0.034 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.4% | 6.4% to 11.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| ERA | 3.44 | 2.75 to 5.59 | +/- 1.42 |
| FIP | 3.42 | 2.56 to 4.16 | +/- 0.80 |
| WHIP | 1.112 | 0.977 to 1.405 | +/- 0.214 |
vs LHH
1384 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.295 |
| K% | 23.5% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 8.8% |
vs RHH
1439 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.290 |
| K% | 22.8% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 8.5% |