Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Kirby, George

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.3% K%
Range
19.7% to 32.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced starter Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
51
Arsenal7 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.59
ERA current pace4.24
ERA rolling p504.09
Observed weight77%
ERA
2.95 3.49 4.09 4.69 5.23
FIP
3.24 3.55 3.88 4.22 4.52
K%
18.6% 19.6% 20.7% 21.7% 22.7%
BB%
5.1% 5.6% 6.1% 6.6% 7.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
31
ERA4.24
45
BB%6.3%
87
K%19.8%
34 -33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.315
47
Barrel allowed6.6%
63 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
85
Hard-hit allowed41.2%
31
Whiff%21.3%
39
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+106
76
Mithrandir Stuff+107
92
Sinker Stuff+109
94
Slider Stuff+108
92
Changeup Stuff+103
61
Curveball Stuff+104
71
Cutter Stuff+99
32
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kirby, George · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.315 2026-09-12: 0.3132026-09-13: 0.3132026-09-14: 0.3132026-09-18: 0.3152026-09-19: 0.3152026-09-20: 0.3152026-09-21: 0.3152026-09-22: 0.3152026-09-23: 0.3152026-09-24: 0.3152026-09-25: 0.3152026-09-26: 0.315 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kirby, George · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kirby, George · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.3%Sweeper: 28.2%Sinker: 20.9%Knuckle Curve: 10.1%Changeup: 5.9%Cutter: 4.1% FF28% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 28%ST 28%SI 21%KC 10%CH 6%FC 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kirby, George · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.7 mphFF97 mphSweeper: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 87.5 mphST87 mphSinker: 21% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 96.9 mphSI97 mphKnuckle Curve: 10% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 84.1 mphKC84 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.7 mphCH89 mphCutter: 4% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.9 mphFC93 mphSplit-Finger: 2% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.2 mphFS87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 29.8% 515 106 qualified
SL 27.1% 469 108 qualified
SI 21.4% 370 109 qualified
CB 10.4% 179 104 limited sample
CH 6.6% 114 103 limited sample
FC 4.7% 81 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 29%, Sinker 28%, 4-Seam Fastball 28%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.80
K% Δ-0.045
Sample181.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.3----
Batters Faced607----
K%24.3%19.7% to 32.3%+/- 6.3%
BB%4.8%2.9% to 6.6%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%23.1%19.3% to 28.6%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.200.87 to 1.96+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3080.270 to 0.339+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.4% to 11.9%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.442.75 to 5.59+/- 1.42
FIP3.432.56 to 4.16+/- 0.80
WHIP1.1120.977 to 1.406+/- 0.214
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1384 career BF

xwOBA0.295
K%23.5%
BB%4.4%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

1439 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%22.8%
BB%3.5%
Barrel8.5%