Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Rasmussen, Drew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
17.1% to 27.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced starter Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
88
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
78
Arsenal7 metrics
76
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.90
ERA current pace2.72
ERA rolling p503.02
Observed weight74%
ERA
1.63 2.29 3.02 3.76 4.42
FIP
2.60 2.88 3.19 3.50 3.78
K%
22.4% 23.4% 24.5% 25.6% 26.6%
BB%
4.3% 4.7% 5.2% 5.7% 6.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.97
94
ERA2.72
87
BB%4.9%
96
K%25.3%
73 +25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.271
89 +47 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.5%
66
Fastball velo95.5
68
Hard-hit allowed34.2%
81
Whiff%22.4%
49 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+101
46
Cutter Stuff+105
83
Fastball Stuff+111
97
Mithrandir Stuff+108
96
Sinker Stuff+109
91
Curveball Stuff+103
61
Slider Stuff+102
54
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rasmussen, Drew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.271 2026-09-12: 0.2732026-09-13: 0.2732026-09-14: 0.2732026-09-18: 0.2742026-09-19: 0.2742026-09-20: 0.2742026-09-21: 0.2742026-09-22: 0.2742026-09-23: 0.2712026-09-24: 0.2712026-09-25: 0.2712026-09-26: 0.271 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rasmussen, Drew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rasmussen, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 28.9%4-Seam Fastball: 28.2%Sinker: 23.8%Changeup: 12.9%Curveball: 3.5%Sweeper: 2.6% FC29% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 29%FF 28%SI 24%CH 13%CU 3%ST 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rasmussen, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.9 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphSinker: 24% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.2 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.6 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 80.1 mphCU80 mphSweeper: 3% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.5 mphST84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 30.1% 525 105 qualified
FB 26.7% 466 111 qualified
SI 23.6% 411 109 qualified
CH 13.9% 242 101 qualified
CB 3.3% 57 103 limited sample
SL 2.4% 42 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Cutter 31%, Sinker 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.08
K% Δ+0.034
Sample175.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings137.2----
Batters Faced552----
K%21.9%17.1% to 27.9%+/- 5.4%
BB%6.2%4.4% to 8.8%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%20.6%15.9% to 25.0%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.270.60 to 1.85+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3190.263 to 0.306+/- 0.021
Barrel% Allowed7.1%3.9% to 9.2%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.801.58 to 5.13+/- 1.77
FIP4.012.65 to 4.15+/- 0.75
WHIP1.2070.865 to 1.398+/- 0.266
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

913 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%21.1%
BB%5.9%
Barrel5.5%
vs RHH

1062 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%19.5%
BB%5.3%
Barrel5.5%