Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Rasmussen, Drew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
17.1% to 27.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced starter Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
79
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal7 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.90
ERA current pace3.26
ERA rolling p503.49
Observed weight64%
ERA
2.19 2.81 3.49 4.18 4.79
FIP
3.13 3.39 3.68 3.97 4.23
K%
20.7% 21.9% 23.3% 24.6% 25.9%
BB%
4.0% 4.6% 5.2% 5.8% 6.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.04
87
ERA3.26
71
BB%4.5%
98
K%24.0%
61
xwOBA allowed0.282
81 +37 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
55
Fastball velo95.7
71
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
80
Whiff%21.7%
39
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Cutter Stuff+105
78
Fastball Stuff+112
98
Mithrandir Stuff+109
95
Sinker Stuff+108
91
Changeup Stuff+100
38
Curveball Stuff+102
55
Slider Stuff+104
63
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rasmussen, Drew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.282 2026-07-05: 0.2712026-07-06: 0.2792026-07-07: 0.2792026-07-08: 0.2782026-07-09: 0.2782026-07-10: 0.2782026-07-11: 0.2822026-07-12: 0.2822026-07-13: 0.2822026-07-14: 0.2822026-07-15: 0.2822026-07-16: 0.282 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rasmussen, Drew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rasmussen, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 31.3%4-Seam Fastball: 27.2%Sinker: 22.1%Changeup: 11.7%Curveball: 4.6%Sweeper: 3.1% FC31% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 31%FF 27%SI 22%CH 12%CU 5%ST 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rasmussen, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 31% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.1 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.9 mphFF96 mphSinker: 22% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.4 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 90.1 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 80.4 mphCU80 mphSweeper: 3% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.5 mphST85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 32.7% 323 105 qualified
FB 26.5% 262 112 qualified
SI 21.3% 210 108 qualified
CH 12.4% 122 100 limited sample
CB 4.4% 43 102 limited sample
SL 2.7% 27 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Cutter 31%, Sinker 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.54
K% Δ+0.021
Sample103.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.0----
Batters Faced559----
K%21.9%17.1% to 27.9%+/- 5.4%
BB%6.2%4.4% to 8.8%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%20.6%15.9% to 25.0%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.270.60 to 1.85+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3190.263 to 0.306+/- 0.021
Barrel% Allowed7.1%3.9% to 9.2%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.801.58 to 5.13+/- 1.77
FIP4.012.65 to 4.15+/- 0.75
WHIP1.2070.865 to 1.397+/- 0.266
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

913 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%21.1%
BB%5.9%
Barrel5.5%
vs RHH

1062 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%19.5%
BB%5.3%
Barrel5.5%