Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Mahle, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.7% K%
Range
14.6% to 23.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced starter Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.79
ERA current pace3.81
ERA rolling p503.80
Observed weight72%
ERA
2.52 3.13 3.80 4.48 5.09
FIP
3.10 3.51 3.96 4.42 4.82
K%
19.4% 20.3% 21.4% 22.4% 23.3%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.3% 7.9% 8.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
68
ERA3.81
58
BB%7.3%
73
K%22.7%
55 +37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.306
59 +39 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.9%
58 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo92.8
24
Hard-hit allowed37.3%
59
Whiff%21.3%
40
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+103
62
Fastball Stuff+106
81
Mithrandir Stuff+106
87
Sinker Stuff+94
9
Slider Stuff+95
11
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mahle, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.306 2026-09-12: 0.3132026-09-13: 0.3102026-09-14: 0.3102026-09-18: 0.3102026-09-19: 0.3042026-09-20: 0.3042026-09-21: 0.3042026-09-22: 0.3042026-09-23: 0.3042026-09-24: 0.3042026-09-25: 0.3042026-09-26: 0.306 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mahle, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mahle, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.0%Split-Finger: 29.6%Cutter: 14.9%Slider: 6.8%Sinker: 0.7% FF48% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 48%FS 30%FC 15%SL 7%SI 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mahle, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 92.8 mphFF93 mphSplit-Finger: 30% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.3 mphFS86 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 87.7 mphFC88 mphSlider: 7% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.8 mphSL85 mphSinker: 1% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.9 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 68.8% 824 106 qualified
FC 19.1% 229 103 qualified
SL 10.6% 127 95 limited sample
SI 1.4% 17 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Split-Finger 28%, Cutter 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.26
K% Δ+0.051
Sample151.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings133.7----
Batters Faced549----
K%17.7%14.6% to 23.3%+/- 4.4%
BB%7.7%5.6% to 10.4%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%19.8%16.4% to 24.3%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.350.56 to 1.84+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3420.278 to 0.356+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.4% to 11.0%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.071.76 to 5.08+/- 1.66
FIP4.482.99 to 5.21+/- 1.11
WHIP1.3300.972 to 1.491+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1581 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%17.2%
BB%7.7%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

1714 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%16.0%
BB%7.0%
Barrel7.7%