Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Split-Finger 28%, Cutter 12%.
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026
Mahle, Tyler
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team SF
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 32
Status IL-15
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.74 |
| ERA current pace | 6.04 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.94 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
ERA
3.78
4.33
4.94
5.55
6.10
FIP
3.59
3.96
4.37
4.79
5.16
K%
18.3%
19.5%
21.0%
22.4%
23.7%
BB%
6.5%
7.3%
8.2%
9.0%
9.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.1%
43
-21 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.6%
38
Fastball velo92.2
19
Hard-hit allowed36.2%
69
K%23.9%
59
+42 vs proj
Whiff%18.5%
17
xwOBA allowed0.316
47
+18 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
48%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 64.1% | 467 | 107 | qualified |
| FC | 20.7% | 151 | 105 | limited sample |
| SL | 12.8% | 93 | 93 | limited sample |
| SI | 2.3% | 17 | 96 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +2.02 |
| K% Δ | +0.062 |
| Sample | 59.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 134.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 551 | -- | -- |
| K% | 17.7% | 14.6% to 23.3% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 5.6% to 10.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| Whiff% | 19.8% | 16.4% to 24.3% | +/- 3.9% |
| HR/9 | 1.30 | 0.54 to 1.77 | +/- 0.62 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.337 | 0.275 to 0.352 | +/- 0.039 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.1% | 5.4% to 11.0% | +/- 2.8% |
| ERA | 4.02 | 1.74 to 5.02 | +/- 1.64 |
| FIP | 4.48 | 2.99 to 5.21 | +/- 1.11 |
| WHIP | 1.349 | 0.985 to 1.512 | +/- 0.263 |
vs LHH
1581 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.269 |
| K% | 17.2% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |
vs RHH
1714 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 16.0% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 7.7% |