Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Mahle, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.7% K%
Range
14.6% to 23.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Balanced starter Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal5 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.74
ERA current pace5.31
ERA rolling p504.67
Observed weight59%
ERA
3.49 4.05 4.67 5.29 5.85
FIP
3.43 3.80 4.23 4.65 5.03
K%
18.1% 19.3% 20.6% 21.9% 23.0%
BB%
6.8% 7.5% 8.3% 9.1% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
31
ERA5.31
18
BB%9.1%
44 -21 vs proj
K%22.4%
50 +34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.317
47 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.6%
52
Fastball velo92.4
21
Hard-hit allowed35.3%
74
Whiff%19.8%
23
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+107
82
Mithrandir Stuff+106
84
Cutter Stuff+105
78
Sinker Stuff+96
13
Slider Stuff+93
7
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mahle, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.317 2026-07-06: 0.3222026-07-07: 0.3152026-07-08: 0.3152026-07-09: 0.3152026-07-10: 0.3152026-07-11: 0.3152026-07-12: 0.3152026-07-13: 0.3172026-07-14: 0.3172026-07-15: 0.3172026-07-16: 0.3172026-07-17: 0.317 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mahle, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mahle, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.6%Split-Finger: 25.3%Cutter: 14.7%Slider: 11.2%Sinker: 1.3% FF48% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 48%FS 25%FC 15%SL 11%SI 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mahle, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 92.4 mphFF92 mphSplit-Finger: 25% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.5 mphFS86 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 87.9 mphFC88 mphSlider: 11% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.7 mphSL85 mphSinker: 1% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.9 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 64.4% 502 107 qualified
FC 19.4% 151 105 limited sample
SL 14.0% 109 93 limited sample
SI 2.2% 17 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Split-Finger 28%, Cutter 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.29
K% Δ+0.048
Sample80.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings135.5----
Batters Faced556----
K%17.7%14.6% to 23.3%+/- 4.4%
BB%7.7%5.6% to 10.4%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%19.8%16.4% to 24.3%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.300.54 to 1.77+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3370.275 to 0.352+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.4% to 11.0%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.021.74 to 5.02+/- 1.64
FIP4.482.99 to 5.21+/- 1.11
WHIP1.3490.986 to 1.513+/- 0.263
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1581 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%17.2%
BB%7.7%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

1714 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%16.0%
BB%7.0%
Barrel7.7%