Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026

Schwarber, Kyle

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.380 xwOBA
Range
0.321 to 0.436
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Impact slugger Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
97
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
86
Defense1 metrics
31
Speed1 metrics
14
Plate skills10 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.367
xwOBA current pace0.378
xwOBA rolling p500.374
Observed weight66%
xwOBA
0.346 0.359 0.374 0.389 0.402
wOBA
0.379 0.394 0.410 0.426 0.441
ISO
0.254 0.269 0.286 0.303 0.319
K%
30.2% 31.5% 32.8% 34.2% 35.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.9%
96
Exit velocity93.4
96
Hard-hit%53.5%
96
xBA0.419
98
xSLG0.890
99
xwOBA0.378
96
BB%13.9%
93
Bat speed74.2
95
K%34.6%
4 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg-0.3 · LF
31 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.9 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · DH
14
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5% · rebadged research
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.8% · rebadged research
72
Correct Decisions69.3% · rebadged research
81
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
46
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
29
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.309 · validated thin sample
7
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.374 · insufficient sample
3
Resists FastballwOBA 0.370 · validated
10
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.436 · validated
0
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Schwarber, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.378 2026-07-05: 0.3822026-07-06: 0.3842026-07-07: 0.3842026-07-08: 0.3812026-07-09: 0.3822026-07-10: 0.3842026-07-11: 0.3822026-07-12: 0.3802026-07-13: 0.3782026-07-14: 0.3782026-07-15: 0.3782026-07-16: 0.378 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

158 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Schwarber, Kyle · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsPull 10%Center field third: 54% of plotted batted ballsCenter 54%Right field third: 36% of plotted batted ballsOppo 36% LF 329 CF 401 RF 330 2026-03-20 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 88.7 / LA 25.02026-03-20 · field error · SL · line_drive · EV 85.3 / LA 8.02026-03-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA -19.02026-03-22 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 28.02026-03-22 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -12.02026-03-22 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 22.02026-03-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 61.7 / LA -39.02026-03-26 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 71.9 / LA -10.02026-03-26 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 42.02026-03-26 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 33.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA -6.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 55.02026-03-29 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 77.7 / LA 22.02026-03-29 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 110.1 / LA 16.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 51.02026-03-31 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 80.4 / LA 49.02026-03-31 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 33.02026-04-01 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 14.02026-04-01 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 30.02026-04-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -10.02026-04-04 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 74.1 / LA 27.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · popup · EV 90.5 / LA 82.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 86.7 / LA 39.02026-04-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 30.02026-04-07 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 77.1 / LA 20.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 48.02026-04-07 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 43.02026-04-08 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 80.0 / LA 18.02026-04-10 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 26.02026-04-11 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 110.7 / LA 23.02026-04-11 · field out · CU · popup · EV 80.7 / LA 73.02026-04-12 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 100.7 / LA 21.02026-04-12 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -3.02026-04-12 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -12.02026-04-13 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 29.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · popup · EV 92.0 / LA 76.02026-04-13 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 25.02026-04-14 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -16.02026-04-14 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 80.3 / LA 21.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 72.0 / LA -24.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 34.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA -7.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 3.02026-04-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 4.02026-04-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 42.9 / LA -70.02026-04-19 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 25.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 59.02026-04-19 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 98.4 / LA 15.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 17.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 59.02026-04-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 8.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 79.6 / LA 84.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.4 / LA 81.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.1 / LA -12.02026-04-21 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 34.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -9.02026-04-22 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA -10.02026-04-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 89.5 / LA 1.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 52.02026-04-24 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 90.2 / LA -21.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.3 / LA 43.02026-04-25 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 75.6 / LA -13.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 41.02026-04-25 · triple · FF · line_drive · EV 110.4 / LA 13.02026-04-25 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA -10.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.4 / LA -25.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA -21.02026-04-26 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 36.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · popup · EV 92.2 / LA 76.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · popup · EV 84.5 / LA 59.02026-04-28 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 107.2 / LA 57.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -32.02026-04-30 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 112.4 / LA 25.02026-04-30 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 72.5 / LA 29.02026-04-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA -2.02026-04-30 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 90.4 / LA 19.02026-04-30 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 113.0 / LA 30.02026-05-03 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 107.5 / LA 11.02026-05-03 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 92.6 / LA 13.02026-05-03 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 62.9 / LA -37.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · popup · EV 80.0 / LA 57.02026-05-04 · field out · SL · popup · EV 83.1 / LA 74.02026-05-04 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 80.3 / LA 2.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · popup · EV 79.3 / LA 69.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.1 / LA 38.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 48.6 / LA 7.02026-05-05 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 31.02026-05-06 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 23.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 37.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 89.9 / LA 71.02026-05-07 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 108.8 / LA 21.02026-05-07 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 80.9 / LA 17.02026-05-07 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 98.4 / LA 19.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 68.7 / LA -33.02026-05-08 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.2 / LA 37.02026-05-09 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 110.8 / LA 30.02026-05-09 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 82.6 / LA 38.02026-05-10 · home run · FS · line_drive · EV 109.1 / LA 19.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 58.02026-05-10 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 32.02026-05-10 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.4 / LA 3.02026-05-12 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 29.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 88.5 / LA 43.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 113.2 / LA 15.02026-05-13 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 65.1 / LA 12.02026-05-14 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 92.1 / LA 25.02026-05-14 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 110.4 / LA 28.02026-05-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 17.02026-05-15 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.5 / LA 39.02026-05-15 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.7 / LA 21.02026-05-15 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 18.02026-05-16 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 110.4 / LA -1.02026-05-16 · field out · ST · popup · EV 87.0 / LA 75.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · popup · EV 87.1 / LA 63.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 37.02026-05-24 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 15.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 47.02026-05-24 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 84.8 / LA 16.02026-05-25 · home run · CH · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 20.02026-05-25 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 12.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -5.02026-05-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 79.7 / LA 19.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 31.02026-05-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 8.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 41.02026-05-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 38.02026-05-27 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -1.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA 1.02026-05-27 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 5.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA -50.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.4 / LA -24.02026-06-04 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 41.02026-06-04 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 16.02026-06-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 16.02026-06-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 90.9 / LA 12.02026-06-05 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 83.0 / LA 20.02026-06-05 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 109.5 / LA 13.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA -9.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 4.02026-06-15 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 91.7 / LA 8.02026-06-15 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 41.02026-06-18 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 9.02026-06-18 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 76.9 / LA 34.02026-06-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 104.6 / LA 16.02026-06-20 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.3 / LA 43.02026-06-20 · single · SV · line_drive · EV 108.8 / LA 10.02026-06-20 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 111.1 / LA 28.02026-06-20 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 109.1 / LA 29.02026-06-20 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 74.5 / LA 41.02026-06-22 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 2.02026-06-22 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 95.5 / LA 22.02026-06-26 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 93.9 / LA 13.02026-06-26 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 81.7 / LA 13.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 38.02026-06-30 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.0 / LA 13.02026-06-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 5.02026-06-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.4 / LA 12.02026-07-01 · field out · SL · popup · EV 86.5 / LA 63.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Schwarber, Kyle · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 76.2 mph Hard swing rate 68% Whiff / swing 29% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Schwarber, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 46%46%Chase: 25%25%Whiff: 31%31%Zone contact: 79%79%Contact: 69%69%Hard hit: 54%54% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.002
wOBA Δ+0.030
Sample425 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances658----
Home Runs41----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3800.321 to 0.436+/- 0.058
ISO0.2510.171 to 0.326+/- 0.077
Barrel%9.3%6.6% to 11.6%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%55.2%45.5% to 61.0%+/- 7.8%
K%28.6%24.0% to 34.1%+/- 5.1%
BB%14.2%11.7% to 18.4%+/- 3.3%
BABIP0.2770.216 to 0.311+/- 0.047
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1725 career PA

xwOBA0.320
K%26.7%
BB%12.1%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHP

4109 career PA

xwOBA0.333
K%25.1%
BB%13.4%
Barrel8.5%