Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Albies, Ozzie
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
21
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.314 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.275 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.284 |
| Observed weight | 76% |
xwOBA
0.266
0.274
0.284
0.294
0.303
wOBA
0.291
0.301
0.313
0.325
0.336
ISO
0.140
0.150
0.160
0.170
0.179
K%
13.5%
14.2%
15.1%
16.0%
16.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.9%
22
-22 vs proj
Exit velocity87.1
42
Hard-hit%28.4%
13
-18 vs proj
xBA0.268
10
xSLG0.408
15
xwOBA0.275
23
-43 vs proj
BB%6.9%
32
Bat speed67.0
22
K%15.1%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
66
Arm Strength89.5 · 2B
69
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
47
Range Runs0.0 · 2B
55
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · 2B
25
SB Success Rate60.0% · 2B
12
Sprint Speed27.1 · 2B
41
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.1% · rebadged research
20
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 15.8% · rebadged research
97
Correct Decisions67.0% · rebadged research
60
Resists FastballwOBA 0.350 · validated
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
31
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
57
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297 · validated thin sample
18
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
49
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.314 · validated
98
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.042 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| Sample | 696 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 592 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.317 | 0.287 to 0.360 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.162 | 0.135 to 0.251 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 3.3% to 6.8% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.9% | 30.3% to 40.9% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 14.1% | 12.0% to 20.4% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 5.4% to 10.1% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.280 | 0.260 to 0.324 | +/- 0.032 |
vs LHP
1219 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.287 |
| K% | 11.2% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |
vs RHP
3613 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.262 |
| K% | 13.6% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |