Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026
Peters, Tristan
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team CWS
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
39
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.256 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.315 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.297 |
| Observed weight | 69% |
xwOBA
0.258
0.277
0.297
0.317
0.335
wOBA
0.333
0.346
0.360
0.375
0.388
ISO
0.117
0.134
0.153
0.173
0.190
K%
17.1%
19.2%
21.6%
24.0%
26.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
36
Exit velocity84.1
13
Hard-hit%34.5%
32
+16 vs proj
xBA0.313
44
xSLG0.485
45
xwOBA0.315
63
+57 vs proj
BB%7.6%
39
Bat speed65.9
11
K%18.2%
76
+58 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · CF
47
Arm Strength90.2 · CF
21
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs10.1 · CF
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · CF
50
Bolts7.0 · CF
54
SB Success Rate88.9% · CF
77
Sprint Speed28.6 · CF
82
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.8% · rebadged research
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0% · rebadged research
86
Correct Decisions68.8% · rebadged research
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
58
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.323 · borderline
9
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
73
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
23
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.357 · insufficient sample
6
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354 · validated
24
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.333 · validated
91
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
236 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.075 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.121 |
| Sample | 501 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 211 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.240 | 0.104 to 0.324 | +/- 0.110 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.001 to 0.219 | +/- 0.109 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 0.2% to 5.8% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 30.2% | 10.3% to 42.0% | +/- 15.9% |
| K% | 29.8% | 11.8% to 39.6% | +/- 13.9% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 0.5% to 9.2% | +/- 4.4% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.133 to 0.352 | +/- 0.109 |
vs LHP
6 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.012 |
| K% | 3.8% |
| BB% | 0.2% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
22 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.013 |
| K% | 3.5% |
| BB% | 0.3% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |