Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team CWS
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
60
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.265 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.367 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.325 |
| Observed weight | 59% |
xwOBA
0.278
0.301
0.325
0.350
0.372
wOBA
0.355
0.372
0.390
0.409
0.425
ISO
0.085
0.105
0.127
0.149
0.169
K%
12.6%
15.4%
18.6%
21.8%
24.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
46
Exit velocity87.2
38
Hard-hit%36.9%
41
xBA0.359
84
xSLG0.534
58
xwOBA0.367
92
+55 vs proj
BB%7.6%
38
Bat speed68.4
33
K%14.6%
87
+52 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.0 · LF
22
Arm Strength92.5 · LF
49
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
22
Range Runs-4.7 · LF
6
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.7 · LF
84
SB Success Rate86.7% · LF
69
Sprint Speed28.2 · LF
73
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.8% · rebadged research
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research
44
Correct Decisions70.1% · rebadged research
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · borderline
68
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.305 · insufficient sample
6
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
19
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample
24
Resists FastballwOBA 0.413 · validated
1
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363 · validated
38
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
86
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
143 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.072 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.095 |
| Sample | 315 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 202 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.295 | 0.127 to 0.331 | +/- 0.102 |
| ISO | 0.134 | 0.006 to 0.198 | +/- 0.096 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 0.2% to 5.7% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.2% | 12.5% to 39.7% | +/- 13.6% |
| K% | 25.2% | 7.9% to 36.1% | +/- 14.1% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 1.7% to 10.4% | +/- 4.4% |
| BABIP | 0.288 | 0.168 to 0.355 | +/- 0.093 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
4 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.9% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |