Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026
Antonacci, Sam
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team CWS
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
52
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.266 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.346 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.323 |
| Observed weight | 72% |
xwOBA
0.290
0.306
0.323
0.341
0.357
wOBA
0.338
0.350
0.364
0.378
0.390
ISO
0.090
0.104
0.120
0.136
0.150
K%
13.0%
15.0%
17.2%
19.5%
21.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
30
-15 vs proj
Exit velocity87.2
43
Hard-hit%33.9%
31
xBA0.340
75
xSLG0.479
44
xwOBA0.346
91
+47 vs proj
BB%8.0%
45
Bat speed67.7
27
K%14.5%
91
+55 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.7 · LF
8
Arm Strength92.5 · LF
41
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
25
Range Runs-7.0 · LF
5
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.5 · LF
90
SB Success Rate81.8% · LF
54
Sprint Speed28.2 · LF
71
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.0% · rebadged research
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions71.0% · rebadged research
90
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
79
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.311 · insufficient sample
4
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
42
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
13
Resists FastballwOBA 0.387 · validated
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372 · validated
21
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
250 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.049 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.067 |
| Sample | 560 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 202 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.297 | 0.129 to 0.331 | +/- 0.101 |
| ISO | 0.134 | 0.005 to 0.198 | +/- 0.096 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 0.2% to 5.7% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.1% | 12.5% to 39.7% | +/- 13.6% |
| K% | 25.4% | 7.9% to 36.1% | +/- 14.1% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 1.7% to 10.4% | +/- 4.4% |
| BABIP | 0.288 | 0.168 to 0.355 | +/- 0.093 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
4 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.9% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |