Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team CWS
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.265 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.366 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.309 |
| Observed weight | 44% |
xwOBA
0.248
0.277
0.309
0.341
0.370
wOBA
0.334
0.357
0.382
0.407
0.429
ISO
0.052
0.078
0.107
0.137
0.163
K%
11.9%
15.8%
20.0%
24.3%
28.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.0%
29
Barrel%4.7%
44
Bat speed68.0
27
Exit velocity87.1
32
Hard-hit%36.4%
35
K%14.5%
87
+54 vs proj
xBA0.373
87
xSLG0.517
51
xwOBA0.366
86
+48 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · LF
78
Arm Strength91.4 · LF
41
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs-2.7 · LF
15
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · LF
70
SB Success Rate80.0% · LF
49
Sprint Speed28.3 · LF
78
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.1% · rebadged research
93
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4% · rebadged research
47
Correct Decisions71.0% · rebadged research
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
64
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
20
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
22
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · insufficient sample
42
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372 · validated
8
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
90
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
114 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.069 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.085 |
| Sample | 172 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 202 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.297 | 0.127 to 0.331 | +/- 0.102 |
| ISO | 0.134 | 0.005 to 0.198 | +/- 0.096 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 0.2% to 5.7% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.1% | 12.5% to 39.7% | +/- 13.6% |
| K% | 25.2% | 7.9% to 36.1% | +/- 14.1% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 1.7% to 10.4% | +/- 4.4% |
| BABIP | 0.288 | 0.168 to 0.355 | +/- 0.093 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
4 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.9% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |