Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Mesa Jr.., Victor
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.282 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.428 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.293 |
| Observed weight | 8% |
xwOBA
0.219
0.254
0.293
0.331
0.366
wOBA
0.187
0.255
0.329
0.404
0.471
ISO
0.051
0.091
0.135
0.180
0.220
K%
9.5%
14.5%
20.0%
25.6%
30.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · RF
Limited
Outs Above Avg0.3 · RF · small sample regression applied
71
Regression applied
Range Runs0.7 · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.5% · rebadged research
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 8.3% · rebadged research
99
Correct Decisions71.2% · rebadged research
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
23
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
41
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
49
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
30
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
52
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354 · validated
57
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
91
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
11 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 219 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.300 | 0.156 to 0.313 | +/- 0.079 |
| ISO | 0.153 | 0.054 to 0.235 | +/- 0.091 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 0.6% to 6.5% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.9% | 18.0% to 46.2% | +/- 14.1% |
| K% | 21.1% | 7.8% to 30.5% | +/- 11.3% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 2.0% to 10.6% | +/- 4.3% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.162 to 0.314 | +/- 0.076 |
vs LHP
12 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.043 |
| K% | 2.1% |
| BB% | 1.6% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |
vs RHP
33 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.047 |
| K% | 2.0% |
| BB% | 2.0% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |