Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Smith, Cam
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
78
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.325 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.340 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.334 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.310
0.321
0.334
0.347
0.359
wOBA
0.283
0.297
0.313
0.330
0.344
ISO
0.132
0.145
0.160
0.174
0.187
K%
21.2%
22.4%
23.7%
25.0%
26.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
88
+40 vs proj
Exit velocity89.5
67
Hard-hit%45.7%
79
+16 vs proj
xBA0.346
75
xSLG0.625
83
xwOBA0.340
77
BB%8.3%
47
Bat speed75.3
99
K%23.0%
46
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · RF
53
Arm Strength97.1 · RF
79
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs4.3 · RF
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · RF
76
Bolts23.0 · RF
83
SB Success Rate90.0% · RF
79
Sprint Speed29.2 · RF
93
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.4% · rebadged research
49
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.4% · rebadged research
22
Correct Decisions64.8% · rebadged research
36
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
81
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
78
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
79
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
99
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356 · validated
19
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336 · validated
91
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
162 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.016 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.011 |
| Sample | 374 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 456 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.324 | 0.282 to 0.361 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.149 | 0.096 to 0.221 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 4.9% | 2.8% to 7.4% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.1% | 34.5% to 47.5% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 24.2% | 20.9% to 30.6% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 5.4% to 11.4% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.312 | 0.275 to 0.360 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
144 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.234 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |
vs RHP
368 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.211 |
| K% | 19.3% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |