Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026

Soto, Juan

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.443 xwOBA
Range
0.374 to 0.470
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Impact slugger Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.424
xwOBA current pace0.422
xwOBA rolling p500.423
Observed weight46%
xwOBA
0.390 0.406 0.423 0.441 0.457
wOBA
0.392 0.414 0.439 0.463 0.485
ISO
0.214 0.235 0.258 0.282 0.303
K%
14.6% 16.0% 17.6% 19.1% 20.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.2%
87
Barrel%13.2%
99
Bat speed69.8
52
Exit velocity92.6
93
Hard-hit%50.7%
92
K%14.8%
87
xBA0.348
73
xSLG0.771
97
xwOBA0.422
99
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength86.8 · LF
11
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
45
Arm Runs-1.0 · LF
Limited
Range Runs0.2 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · LF
47
Sprint Speed25.9 · LF
18
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.8% · rebadged research
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2% · rebadged research
60
Correct Decisions70.0% · rebadged research
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.323 · borderline
5
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · insufficient sample
8
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
34
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
68
Resists FastballwOBA 0.383 · validated
4
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
17
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
87
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Soto, Juan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3962026-05-19: 0.3892026-05-21: 0.3852026-05-23: 0.4162026-05-24: 0.4152026-05-25: 0.4152026-05-26: 0.4152026-05-28: 0.4152026-05-29: 0.4152026-05-30: 0.4152026-05-31: 0.4142026-06-01: 0.422 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Juan Soto's tools (81) outpace production (63) by 17 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

128 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Soto, Juan · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsPull 9%Center field third: 69% of plotted batted ballsCenter 69%Right field third: 22% of plotted batted ballsOppo 22% LF 335 CF 408 RF 330 2026-03-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.9 / LA 42.02026-03-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 30.02026-03-21 · field out · CU · popup · EV 94.4 / LA 64.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA -13.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 65.0 / LA -1.02026-03-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 12.02026-03-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 83.3 / LA 24.02026-03-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA -26.02026-03-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 3.02026-03-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 40.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 42.02026-03-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 83.2 / LA -43.02026-03-28 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 38.7 / LA -63.02026-03-28 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.3 / LA 4.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 67.2 / LA -28.02026-03-29 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 94.7 / LA 20.02026-03-29 · double · SI · line_drive2026-03-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 0.02026-03-30 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 94.2 / LA 15.02026-03-30 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -18.02026-03-31 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 109.3 / LA 20.02026-03-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.8 / LA 11.02026-03-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 74.6 / LA -44.02026-04-01 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 31.02026-04-01 · field out · ST · popup · EV 92.1 / LA 67.02026-04-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.6 / LA 42.02026-04-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 54.6 / LA -8.02026-04-02 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -38.02026-04-02 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 87.1 / LA 24.02026-04-02 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 76.0 / LA 23.02026-04-03 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 98.8 / LA -2.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 32.02026-04-22 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 74.2 / LA 15.02026-04-22 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 15.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · popup · EV 90.2 / LA 61.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 6.02026-04-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 45.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 62.7 / LA -32.02026-04-24 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 114.2 / LA 12.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 28.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 82.0 / LA 11.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 28.02026-04-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 8.02026-04-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 0.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 58.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 110.8 / LA 6.02026-04-28 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.8 / LA 29.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 47.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 27.02026-04-29 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 28.02026-04-29 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 33.02026-04-29 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA -6.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 28.02026-04-30 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 110.8 / LA 14.02026-04-30 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 25.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.1 / LA 39.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -9.02026-05-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -1.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · popup · EV 92.9 / LA 66.02026-05-02 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 90.5 / LA 22.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -28.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 42.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 59.3 / LA -24.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · popup · EV 87.0 / LA 69.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 105.6 / LA 20.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · popup · EV 75.8 / LA 85.02026-05-06 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 6.02026-05-06 · sac fly · FC · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 50.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA -11.02026-05-06 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 30.02026-05-07 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 64.9 / LA 1.02026-05-07 · triple · SV · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 37.02026-05-07 · field out · SI · popup · EV 95.4 / LA 63.02026-05-07 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 76.2 / LA 53.02026-05-08 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 39.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -34.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · popup · EV 92.7 / LA 73.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 57.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA -6.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 32.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 37.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 43.02026-05-12 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 5.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 46.02026-05-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 9.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.6 / LA -43.02026-05-13 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 52.1 / LA -70.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA -16.02026-05-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.6 / LA -16.02026-05-14 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 28.02026-05-14 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 1.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 49.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 40.02026-05-15 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 28.02026-05-16 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 4.02026-05-16 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 1.02026-05-17 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 6.02026-05-17 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 53.1 / LA -78.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -13.02026-05-17 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -13.02026-05-18 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 40.0 / LA -51.02026-05-18 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -4.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 52.02026-05-18 · field out · CU · popup · EV 76.4 / LA 75.02026-05-19 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA 4.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA -19.02026-05-19 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 110.2 / LA 29.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · popup · EV 85.8 / LA 76.02026-05-20 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.9 / LA 25.02026-05-20 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 109.0 / LA 35.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 27.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA -10.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 28.02026-05-22 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.7 / LA 32.02026-05-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 86.1 / LA 22.02026-05-22 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 86.6 / LA -14.02026-05-23 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 0.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA -6.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.2 / LA -44.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 0.02026-05-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 31.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 87.2 / LA 27.02026-05-27 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 32.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 41.02026-05-27 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 16.02026-05-31 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA -3.02026-05-31 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 109.0 / LA 30.02026-05-31 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 80.8 / LA 1.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Soto, Juan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 21%21%Whiff: 20%20%Zone contact: 90%90%Contact: 80%80%Hard hit: 51%51% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.397 vs 0.348 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.021
wOBA Δ-0.004
Sample189 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances649----
Home Runs34----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.4430.374 to 0.470+/- 0.048
ISO0.2470.181 to 0.332+/- 0.075
Barrel%10.7%7.4% to 12.4%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%55.3%47.2% to 61.5%+/- 7.1%
K%18.2%14.4% to 23.8%+/- 4.7%
BB%17.3%14.5% to 20.8%+/- 3.2%
BABIP0.2970.253 to 0.337+/- 0.042
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1653 career PA

xwOBA0.348
K%16.9%
BB%14.2%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHP

3474 career PA

xwOBA0.397
K%15.1%
BB%17.1%
Barrel9.4%