Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026

Soto, Juan

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.443 xwOBA
Range
0.374 to 0.470
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Impact slugger Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
93
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
89
Defense4 metrics
21
Speed3 metrics
14
Plate skills10 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.424
xwOBA current pace0.431
xwOBA rolling p500.429
Observed weight61%
xwOBA
0.400 0.414 0.429 0.443 0.457
wOBA
0.394 0.410 0.428 0.446 0.462
ISO
0.221 0.237 0.255 0.274 0.290
K%
13.5% 14.6% 15.8% 17.0% 18.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.5%
98
Exit velocity92.0
92
Hard-hit%49.0%
88
xBA0.364
86
xSLG0.728
96
xwOBA0.431
100
BB%16.3%
98
Bat speed69.5
47
K%13.1%
93 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.5 · LF
11
Arm Strength87.7 · LF
12
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
22
Range Runs-0.9 · LF
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · LF
14
SB Success Rate60.0% · LF
11
Sprint Speed25.9 · LF
16
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.8% · rebadged research
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4% · rebadged research
66
Correct Decisions70.5% · rebadged research
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · borderline
5
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · insufficient sample
15
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
73
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample
24
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372 · validated
9
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
24
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Soto, Juan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.431 2026-07-05: 0.4252026-07-06: 0.4232026-07-07: 0.4262026-07-08: 0.4302026-07-09: 0.4302026-07-10: 0.4272026-07-11: 0.4322026-07-12: 0.4292026-07-13: 0.4302026-07-14: 0.4292026-07-15: 0.4292026-07-16: 0.431 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Juan Soto's tools (94) outpace production (90) by 3 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives. Also flagged: Passive In-Zone Approach.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High
-9.0° Current 29° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

153 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Soto, Juan · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsPull 10%Center field third: 70% of plotted batted ballsCenter 70%Right field third: 20% of plotted batted ballsOppo 20% LF 335 CF 408 RF 330 2026-03-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.9 / LA 42.02026-03-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 30.02026-03-21 · field out · CU · popup · EV 94.4 / LA 64.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA -13.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 65.0 / LA -1.02026-03-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 12.02026-03-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 83.3 / LA 24.02026-03-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA -26.02026-03-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 40.02026-03-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 3.02026-03-28 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.3 / LA 4.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 42.02026-03-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 83.2 / LA -43.02026-03-28 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 38.7 / LA -63.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 67.2 / LA -28.02026-03-29 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 94.7 / LA 20.02026-03-29 · double · SI · line_drive2026-03-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 0.02026-03-30 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 94.2 / LA 15.02026-03-30 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -18.02026-03-31 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 109.3 / LA 20.02026-03-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.8 / LA 11.02026-03-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 74.6 / LA -44.02026-04-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 54.6 / LA -8.02026-04-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.6 / LA 42.02026-04-01 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 31.02026-04-01 · field out · ST · popup · EV 92.1 / LA 67.02026-04-02 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 87.1 / LA 24.02026-04-02 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 76.0 / LA 23.02026-04-02 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -38.02026-04-03 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 98.8 / LA -2.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 32.02026-04-22 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 15.02026-04-22 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 74.2 / LA 15.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · popup · EV 90.2 / LA 61.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 6.02026-04-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 45.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 28.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 62.7 / LA -32.02026-04-24 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 114.2 / LA 12.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 82.0 / LA 11.02026-04-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 0.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 28.02026-04-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 8.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 58.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 110.8 / LA 6.02026-04-28 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.8 / LA 29.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 47.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 28.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 27.02026-04-29 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 28.02026-04-29 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA -6.02026-04-29 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 33.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.1 / LA 39.02026-04-30 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 110.8 / LA 14.02026-04-30 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 25.02026-05-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -1.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -9.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · popup · EV 92.9 / LA 66.02026-05-02 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 90.5 / LA 22.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -28.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 42.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 59.3 / LA -24.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · popup · EV 87.0 / LA 69.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 105.6 / LA 20.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA -11.02026-05-06 · sac fly · FC · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 50.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · popup · EV 75.8 / LA 85.02026-05-06 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 30.02026-05-06 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 6.02026-05-07 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 64.9 / LA 1.02026-05-07 · triple · SV · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 37.02026-05-07 · field out · SI · popup · EV 95.4 / LA 63.02026-05-07 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 76.2 / LA 53.02026-05-08 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 39.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -34.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 57.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA -6.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · popup · EV 92.7 / LA 73.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 37.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 32.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 43.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 46.02026-05-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 9.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.6 / LA -43.02026-05-12 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 5.02026-05-13 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 52.1 / LA -70.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA -16.02026-05-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.6 / LA -16.02026-05-14 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 28.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 40.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 49.02026-05-14 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 1.02026-05-15 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 28.02026-05-16 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 1.02026-05-16 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 4.02026-05-17 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 6.02026-05-17 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 53.1 / LA -78.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -13.02026-05-17 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -13.02026-05-18 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 40.0 / LA -51.02026-05-18 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -4.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 52.02026-05-18 · field out · CU · popup · EV 76.4 / LA 75.02026-05-19 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA 4.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA -19.02026-05-19 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 110.2 / LA 29.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 27.02026-05-20 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.9 / LA 25.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · popup · EV 85.8 / LA 76.02026-05-20 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 109.0 / LA 35.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA -10.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 28.02026-05-22 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.7 / LA 32.02026-05-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 86.1 / LA 22.02026-05-22 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 86.6 / LA -14.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA -6.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.2 / LA -44.02026-05-23 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 0.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 0.02026-05-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 31.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 87.2 / LA 27.02026-05-27 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 32.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 41.02026-05-27 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 16.02026-05-31 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 80.8 / LA 1.02026-05-31 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 109.0 / LA 30.02026-05-31 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA -3.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.1 / LA 37.02026-06-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA 4.02026-06-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 2.02026-06-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 2.02026-06-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA -18.02026-06-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 49.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 39.02026-06-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 62.6 / LA -28.02026-06-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA -1.02026-06-15 · field out · FF · popup · EV 94.6 / LA 72.02026-06-18 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 38.02026-06-18 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.0 / LA 42.02026-06-18 · field out · SI · popup · EV 91.7 / LA 66.02026-06-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 104.6 / LA 7.02026-06-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 7.02026-06-20 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 7.02026-06-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -37.02026-06-26 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA -21.02026-06-26 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 88.3 / LA -14.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.1 / LA 29.02026-06-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA -15.02026-06-30 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -9.02026-07-01 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 63.1 / LA -60.02026-07-01 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 81.3 / LA 43.02026-07-01 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 28.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Soto, Juan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 19%19%Whiff: 18%18%Zone contact: 90%90%Contact: 82%82%Hard hit: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.397 vs 0.348 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.012
wOBA Δ-0.015
Sample343 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances649----
Home Runs34----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.4430.374 to 0.470+/- 0.048
ISO0.2470.181 to 0.332+/- 0.075
Barrel%10.7%7.4% to 12.4%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%55.3%47.2% to 61.5%+/- 7.1%
K%18.2%14.4% to 23.8%+/- 4.7%
BB%17.3%14.5% to 20.8%+/- 3.2%
BABIP0.2970.253 to 0.337+/- 0.042
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1653 career PA

xwOBA0.348
K%16.9%
BB%14.2%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHP

3474 career PA

xwOBA0.397
K%15.1%
BB%17.1%
Barrel9.4%