Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Webb, Logan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.8% K%
Range
18.9% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Balanced starter Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
58
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal6 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.49
ERA current pace3.86
ERA rolling p503.73
Observed weight64%
ERA
2.72 3.20 3.73 4.26 4.73
FIP
2.85 3.12 3.41 3.71 3.98
K%
18.1% 19.3% 20.6% 21.9% 23.0%
BB%
4.6% 5.2% 5.8% 6.4% 6.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.21
69
ERA3.86
53
BB%6.2%
85
K%19.1%
28 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.309
54 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
76 +35 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
17
Hard-hit allowed41.3%
34
Whiff%18.0%
12
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Mithrandir Stuff+104
64
Sinker Stuff+102
47
Changeup Stuff+110
94
Cutter Stuff+98
21
Fastball Stuff+95
13
Slider Stuff+104
68
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Webb, Logan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.309 2026-07-05: 0.3102026-07-06: 0.3102026-07-07: 0.3102026-07-08: 0.3102026-07-09: 0.3102026-07-10: 0.3092026-07-11: 0.3092026-07-12: 0.3092026-07-13: 0.3092026-07-14: 0.3092026-07-15: 0.3092026-07-16: 0.309 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Webb, Logan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Webb, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 31.1%Changeup: 24.4%Sweeper: 19.3%4-Seam Fastball: 12.7%Cutter: 12.5% SI31% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 31%CH 24%ST 19%FF 13%FC 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Webb, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 92.1 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 24% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 86.0 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 19% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.1 mphST84 mph4-Seam Fastball: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 92.4 mphFF92 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.9 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 38.4% 281 102 qualified
CH 22.7% 166 110 limited sample
SL 20.7% 151 104 limited sample
FB 10.3% 75 95 limited sample
FC 7.9% 58 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 34%, Sweeper 27%, Changeup 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.34
K% Δ-0.026
Sample103.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings149.8----
Batters Faced622----
K%21.8%18.9% to 29.5%+/- 5.3%
BB%5.8%3.9% to 7.7%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%19.6%18.2% to 25.8%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.080.39 to 1.61+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3270.258 to 0.333+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.2% to 11.3%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.522.46 to 5.19+/- 1.37
FIP3.322.34 to 3.87+/- 0.77
WHIP1.2311.059 to 1.502+/- 0.222
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2330 career BF

xwOBA0.301
K%22.3%
BB%5.5%
Barrel8.2%
vs RHH

2292 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%22.7%
BB%4.8%
Barrel7.7%