Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 34%, Sweeper 27%, Changeup 24%.
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026
Webb, Logan
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team SF
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.49 |
| ERA current pace | 5.06 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.29 |
| Observed weight | 51% |
ERA
3.32
3.78
4.29
4.80
5.25
FIP
2.87
3.13
3.41
3.70
3.96
K%
18.5%
20.0%
21.6%
23.2%
24.7%
BB%
4.9%
5.6%
6.3%
7.1%
7.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.6%
65
-22 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
53
Fastball velo92.3
20
Hard-hit allowed47.7%
8
K%20.1%
32
-15 vs proj
Whiff%19.6%
20
xwOBA allowed0.330
37
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
37%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 38.4% | 281 | 102 | qualified |
| CH | 22.7% | 166 | 110 | limited sample |
| SL | 20.7% | 151 | 104 | limited sample |
| FB | 10.3% | 75 | 94 | limited sample |
| FC | 7.9% | 58 | 99 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +1.54 |
| K% Δ | -0.017 |
| Sample | 56.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 148.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 617 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.8% | 18.9% to 29.5% | +/- 5.3% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 3.9% to 7.7% | +/- 1.9% |
| Whiff% | 19.6% | 18.2% to 25.8% | +/- 3.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.08 | 0.39 to 1.61 | +/- 0.61 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.327 | 0.258 to 0.333 | +/- 0.038 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.2% | 6.2% to 11.3% | +/- 2.6% |
| ERA | 3.52 | 2.46 to 5.19 | +/- 1.37 |
| FIP | 3.32 | 2.34 to 3.87 | +/- 0.77 |
| WHIP | 1.232 | 1.059 to 1.503 | +/- 0.222 |
vs LHH
2330 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.301 |
| K% | 22.3% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 8.2% |
vs RHH
2292 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 22.7% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 7.7% |