Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range
Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Judge, Aaron
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.435 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.415 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.424 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Swing path and decision map
Aaron Judge's tools (86) outpace production (74) by 12 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Power Efficiency Gap; Passive In-Zone Approach. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.
Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts
Hittable takes / Expansion guardrailField-coordinate spray profile
139 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Projection notes
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.053 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.047 |
| Sample | 270 PA |
negative regression
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 643 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 46 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.468 | 0.378 to 0.483 | +/- 0.052 |
| ISO | 0.299 | 0.224 to 0.388 | +/- 0.082 |
| Barrel% | 12.6% | 9.9% to 15.1% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 57.4% | 48.5% to 65.1% | +/- 8.3% |
| K% | 25.1% | 20.8% to 30.4% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 16.6% | 13.8% to 20.6% | +/- 3.4% |
| BABIP | 0.355 | 0.304 to 0.396 | +/- 0.046 |
1313 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.387 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 18.1% |
| Barrel | 11.9% |
4120 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.391 |
| K% | 22.3% |
| BB% | 14.4% |
| Barrel | 11.5% |