Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026

Judge, Aaron

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.468 xwOBA
Range
0.378 to 0.483
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Impact slugger Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.435
xwOBA current pace0.415
xwOBA rolling p500.424
Observed weight55%
xwOBA
0.392 0.407 0.424 0.441 0.456
wOBA
0.383 0.401 0.421 0.441 0.460
ISO
0.249 0.269 0.291 0.313 0.333
K%
24.2% 25.6% 27.1% 28.6% 30.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%15.9%
96
Barrel%11.9%
97
Bat speed74.1
95
Exit velocity94.4
98
Hard-hit%58.2%
99
K%28.5%
19
xBA0.407
98
xSLG0.904
99
xwOBA0.415
99
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · RF
80
Arm Strength95.4 · RF
74
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Range Runs-1.1 · RF
37
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · RF
34
Bolts1.0 · RF
17
SB Success Rate57.1% · RF
10
Sprint Speed26.7 · RF
33
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1% · rebadged research
78
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.6% · rebadged research
80
Correct Decisions69.5% · rebadged research
81
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · borderline
27
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
2
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
44
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.365 · insufficient sample
5
Resists FastballwOBA 0.365 · validated
12
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.419 · validated
0
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Judge, Aaron · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.4342026-05-19: 0.4312026-05-21: 0.4312026-05-23: 0.4202026-05-24: 0.4202026-05-25: 0.4242026-05-26: 0.4232026-05-28: 0.4242026-05-29: 0.4242026-05-30: 0.4242026-05-31: 0.4212026-06-01: 0.415 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Aaron Judge's tools (86) outpace production (74) by 12 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Power Efficiency Gap; Passive In-Zone Approach. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too Low
+10.7° Current 5° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

139 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Judge, Aaron · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 19% of plotted batted ballsPull 19%Center field third: 64% of plotted batted ballsCenter 64%Right field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsOppo 17% LF 318 CF 408 RF 314 2026-03-22 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 111.7 / LA 25.02026-03-23 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 108.6 / LA 12.02026-03-23 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 109.5 / LA 6.02026-03-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA -17.02026-03-27 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.1 / LA 37.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 30.02026-03-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 51.4 / LA -77.02026-03-28 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 102.1 / LA 33.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 81.3 / LA 0.02026-03-30 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.4 / LA 10.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 51.0 / LA -33.02026-03-31 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 107.0 / LA 7.02026-03-31 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 68.9 / LA -31.02026-04-01 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 45.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 28.02026-04-01 · field error · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA -17.02026-04-03 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 31.02026-04-03 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 103.9 / LA 13.02026-04-04 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 31.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 111.9 / LA 18.02026-04-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.8 / LA -6.02026-04-04 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 7.02026-04-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.2 / LA -26.02026-04-05 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 110.7 / LA 22.02026-04-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA 1.02026-04-05 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 73.6 / LA 37.02026-04-07 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA -8.02026-04-07 · field out · CU · popup · EV 65.6 / LA 38.02026-04-08 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 6.02026-04-08 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 76.4 / LA -5.02026-04-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 60.8 / LA -48.02026-04-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA -24.02026-04-09 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 69.1 / LA 1.02026-04-10 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 110.1 / LA 15.02026-04-10 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 85.2 / LA -14.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 107.9 / LA 22.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · popup · EV 79.7 / LA 54.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · popup · EV 61.9 / LA 39.02026-04-12 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.9 / LA 31.02026-04-13 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 116.2 / LA 26.02026-04-13 · fielders choice · SL · ground_ball · EV 103.9 / LA -5.02026-04-13 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 20.02026-04-13 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 111.4 / LA 27.02026-04-14 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 98.5 / LA 20.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 6.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · popup · EV 92.5 / LA 73.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · popup · EV 76.9 / LA 66.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 4.02026-04-15 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 29.02026-04-16 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 44.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · popup · EV 72.3 / LA 54.02026-04-16 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 32.02026-04-17 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 95.9 / LA 21.02026-04-17 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -1.02026-04-19 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 111.6 / LA 30.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · popup · EV 93.1 / LA 68.02026-04-21 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA -3.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.7 / LA -12.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA -8.02026-04-22 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 11.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 112.4 / LA -6.02026-04-23 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 95.1 / LA 14.02026-04-24 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 31.02026-04-24 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 37.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 5.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 15.02026-04-26 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 31.02026-04-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 88.3 / LA 58.02026-04-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 89.0 / LA 37.02026-04-27 · home run · CU · line_drive · EV 113.0 / LA 20.02026-04-27 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 100.3 / LA 16.02026-04-27 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 110.3 / LA 20.02026-04-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 87.3 / LA 11.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 21.02026-04-28 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 112.7 / LA 36.02026-04-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 83.7 / LA -17.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 40.4 / LA -50.02026-05-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.4 / LA 1.02026-05-01 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 78.9 / LA 26.02026-05-03 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -8.02026-05-03 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 107.7 / LA 33.02026-05-03 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 110.6 / LA 15.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -10.02026-05-04 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 86.0 / LA 22.02026-05-04 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 1.02026-05-04 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 110.6 / LA 27.02026-05-05 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.0 / LA 27.02026-05-06 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 110.0 / LA 34.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 106.1 / LA 17.02026-05-07 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 6.02026-05-07 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 47.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 56.02026-05-07 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 108.8 / LA 7.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.2 / LA 20.02026-05-08 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 5.02026-05-10 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 26.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 93.9 / LA 17.02026-05-11 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 3.02026-05-11 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 50.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA -11.02026-05-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.1 / LA -54.02026-05-12 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -3.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.5 / LA -20.02026-05-13 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -18.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · popup · EV 76.9 / LA 62.02026-05-15 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 47.02026-05-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 6.02026-05-15 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 99.1 / LA 15.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 40.02026-05-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 12.02026-05-16 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 87.5 / LA 15.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 33.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 77.3 / LA 65.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 0.02026-05-18 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 79.9 / LA 36.02026-05-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA -13.02026-05-18 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 24.02026-05-18 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 110.0 / LA 18.02026-05-21 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.3 / LA -6.02026-05-21 · field out · CU · popup · EV 87.6 / LA 66.02026-05-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 80.4 / LA -21.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 111.9 / LA 1.02026-05-22 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 76.9 / LA 34.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.6 / LA 23.02026-05-24 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 14.02026-05-24 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 47.02026-05-24 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 1.02026-05-24 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 34.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA 1.02026-05-25 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 110.9 / LA 11.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 21.02026-05-26 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 20.02026-05-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -5.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.6 / LA 1.02026-05-27 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 51.02026-05-27 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -2.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 33.02026-05-31 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 48.02026-05-31 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.7 / LA 46.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Judge, Aaron · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 37.8° Length 8.1 ft Ideal path 45% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Judge, Aaron · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 14.1° Direction -7.0° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Judge, Aaron · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 75.7 mph Hard swing rate 58% Whiff / swing 33% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Judge, Aaron · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 44%44%Chase: 25%25%Whiff: 31%31%Zone contact: 81%81%Contact: 69%69%Hard hit: 58%58% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.053
wOBA Δ-0.047
Sample270 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances643----
Home Runs46----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.4680.378 to 0.483+/- 0.052
ISO0.2990.224 to 0.388+/- 0.082
Barrel%12.6%9.9% to 15.1%+/- 2.6%
Hard-Hit%57.4%48.5% to 65.1%+/- 8.3%
K%25.1%20.8% to 30.4%+/- 4.8%
BB%16.6%13.8% to 20.6%+/- 3.4%
BABIP0.3550.304 to 0.396+/- 0.046
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1313 career PA

xwOBA0.387
K%21.4%
BB%18.1%
Barrel11.9%
vs RHP

4120 career PA

xwOBA0.391
K%22.3%
BB%14.4%
Barrel11.5%