Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Skubal, Tarik

Bat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape

Primary
28.7% K%
Range
23.9% to 39.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
93
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
86
Arsenal6 metrics
92
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason2.63
ERA current pace2.70
ERA rolling p502.68
Observed weight73%
ERA
1.54 2.08 2.68 3.28 3.82
FIP
1.71 2.08 2.49 2.91 3.28
K%
27.4% 28.7% 30.2% 31.6% 32.9%
BB%
3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.98
94
ERA2.70
88
BB%4.2%
99
K%29.8%
92
xwOBA allowed0.266
91
Barrel allowed6.7%
63 +19 vs proj
Fastball velo96.7
84
Hard-hit allowed35.1%
75
Whiff%29.2%
91
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+107
85
Fastball Stuff+112
98
Mithrandir Stuff+110
98
Sinker Stuff+108
87
Curveball Stuff+105
87
Slider Stuff+110
97
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Skubal, Tarik · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.266 2026-09-12: 0.2702026-09-13: 0.2702026-09-14: 0.2702026-09-18: 0.2672026-09-19: 0.2672026-09-20: 0.2672026-09-21: 0.2712026-09-22: 0.2712026-09-23: 0.2712026-09-24: 0.2712026-09-25: 0.2712026-09-26: 0.266 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Skubal, Tarik · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 58%58%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skubal, Tarik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.7%Changeup: 25.6%Sinker: 17.7%Slider: 14.0%Curveball: 5.0% FF38% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 38%CH 26%SI 18%SL 14%CU 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skubal, Tarik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphChangeup: 26% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.6 mphCH88 mphSinker: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.7 mphSI97 mphSlider: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.7 mphSL90 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 80.4 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 39.3% 538 112 qualified
CH 26.1% 357 107 qualified
SI 16.3% 223 108 qualified
SL 13.5% 185 110 limited sample
CB 4.8% 66 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 31%, 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Sinker 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.26
K% Δ+0.012
Sample161.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings146.5----
Batters Faced573----
K%28.7%23.9% to 39.7%+/- 7.9%
BB%6.1%2.9% to 7.3%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%28.1%25.7% to 35.1%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.130.56 to 1.72+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.2710.201 to 0.303+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed7.8%4.9% to 11.0%+/- 3.0%
ERA2.961.29 to 4.23+/- 1.47
FIP3.001.45 to 3.46+/- 1.01
WHIP0.9660.668 to 1.333+/- 0.332
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

656 career BF

xwOBA0.231
K%27.0%
BB%3.8%
Barrel4.9%
vs RHH

2745 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%30.7%
BB%4.5%
Barrel7.7%