Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Skubal, Tarik

Bat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape

Primary
28.7% K%
Range
23.9% to 39.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
88
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
81
Arsenal6 metrics
88
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason2.67
ERA current pace3.09
ERA rolling p502.91
Observed weight57%
ERA
1.85 2.35 2.91 3.47 3.97
FIP
2.04 2.38 2.75 3.13 3.47
K%
26.4% 28.2% 30.3% 32.3% 34.1%
BB%
3.0% 3.6% 4.2% 4.8% 5.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.98
91
ERA3.09
74
BB%3.5%
100
K%29.7%
92
xwOBA allowed0.278
85
Barrel allowed7.2%
58
Fastball velo96.7
82
Hard-hit allowed37.2%
62
Whiff%28.8%
88
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+105
73
Fastball Stuff+112
98
Mithrandir Stuff+110
98
Curveball Stuff+104
82
Sinker Stuff+106
83
Slider Stuff+110
95
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Skubal, Tarik · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.278 2026-07-05: 0.2822026-07-06: 0.2822026-07-07: 0.2822026-07-08: 0.2822026-07-09: 0.2792026-07-10: 0.2792026-07-11: 0.2792026-07-12: 0.2792026-07-13: 0.2792026-07-14: 0.2782026-07-15: 0.2782026-07-16: 0.278 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Skubal, Tarik · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 60%60%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skubal, Tarik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.1%Changeup: 24.9%Sinker: 19.4%Slider: 14.5%Curveball: 4.1% FF37% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 37%CH 25%SI 19%SL 15%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skubal, Tarik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 96.7 mphFF97 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.3 mphCH87 mphSinker: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.7 mphSI97 mphSlider: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.3 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 80.3 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.1% 304 112 qualified
CH 25.9% 207 105 qualified
SI 18.4% 147 106 limited sample
SL 13.5% 108 110 limited sample
CB 4.0% 32 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 31%, 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Sinker 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.08
K% Δ+0.010
Sample79.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings148.3----
Batters Faced580----
K%28.7%23.9% to 39.7%+/- 7.9%
BB%6.1%2.9% to 7.3%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%28.1%25.7% to 35.1%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.060.53 to 1.62+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.2740.203 to 0.308+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed7.8%4.9% to 11.0%+/- 3.0%
ERA3.011.31 to 4.29+/- 1.49
FIP3.001.45 to 3.46+/- 1.01
WHIP0.9930.687 to 1.371+/- 0.342
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

656 career BF

xwOBA0.231
K%27.0%
BB%3.8%
Barrel4.9%
vs RHH

2745 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%30.7%
BB%4.5%
Barrel7.7%