Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Skubal, Tarik

Bat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape

Primary
28.7% K%
Range
23.9% to 39.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason2.67
ERA current pace2.70
ERA rolling p502.68
Observed weight44%
ERA
1.62 2.13 2.68 3.24 3.74
FIP
1.61 1.95 2.33 2.71 3.05
K%
24.5% 26.8% 29.3% 31.8% 34.1%
BB%
2.9% 3.6% 4.3% 5.1% 5.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%3.2%
99
Barrel allowed5.5%
78 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo96.5
81
Hard-hit allowed43.0%
29
K%27.0%
81
Whiff%26.2%
72
xwOBA allowed0.284
76
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+110
96
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Skubal, Tarik · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2842026-05-19: 0.2842026-05-21: 0.2842026-05-23: 0.2842026-05-24: 0.2842026-05-25: 0.2842026-05-26: 0.2842026-05-28: 0.2842026-05-29: 0.2842026-05-30: 0.2842026-05-31: 0.2842026-06-01: 0.284 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Skubal, Tarik · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skubal, Tarik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.8%Changeup: 25.6%Sinker: 19.5%Slider: 14.0%Curveball: 3.1% MIX FF 38%CH 26%SI 19%SL 14%CU 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skubal, Tarik · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.0FFCH: HB -0.9, IVB 2.7CHSI: HB -0.0, IVB 1.5SISL: HB 0.2, IVB 2.5SLCU: HB 0.6, IVB 4.1CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 39.0% 244 112 qualified
CH 25.7% 161 104 limited sample
SI 18.7% 117 106 limited sample
SL 13.7% 86 109 limited sample
CB 2.9% 18 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 31%, 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Sinker 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.31
K% Δ-0.016
Sample47.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings147.1----
Batters Faced575----
K%28.7%23.9% to 39.7%+/- 7.9%
BB%6.1%2.9% to 7.3%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%28.1%25.7% to 35.1%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.060.53 to 1.62+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.2740.203 to 0.308+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed7.8%4.9% to 11.0%+/- 3.0%
ERA3.011.31 to 4.29+/- 1.49
FIP3.001.45 to 3.46+/- 1.01
WHIP0.9930.687 to 1.371+/- 0.342
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

656 career BF

xwOBA0.231
K%27.0%
BB%3.8%
Barrel4.9%
vs RHH

2745 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%30.7%
BB%4.5%
Barrel7.7%