Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Skenes, Paul

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.8% K%
Range
25.5% to 38.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
84
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
78
Arsenal6 metrics
64
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.11
ERA current pace3.57
ERA rolling p503.41
Observed weight66%
ERA
2.05 2.69 3.41 4.13 4.77
FIP
2.15 2.51 2.90 3.29 3.64
K%
26.8% 28.2% 29.7% 31.2% 32.6%
BB%
4.7% 5.2% 5.8% 6.4% 7.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.03
88
ERA3.57
60
BB%5.9%
88
K%29.5%
91
xwOBA allowed0.258
93 +24 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.3%
72 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
84
Hard-hit allowed36.9%
63
Whiff%25.0%
65
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+97
20
Fastball Stuff+105
74
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Slider Stuff+105
75
Curveball Stuff+102
47
Sinker Stuff+108
92
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Skenes, Paul · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.258 2026-07-05: 0.2602026-07-06: 0.2602026-07-07: 0.2602026-07-08: 0.2602026-07-09: 0.2592026-07-10: 0.2592026-07-11: 0.2592026-07-12: 0.2592026-07-13: 0.2592026-07-14: 0.2582026-07-15: 0.2582026-07-16: 0.258 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Skenes, Paul · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skenes, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.9%Sweeper: 15.5%Changeup: 14.9%Sinker: 11.6%Split-Finger: 11.0%Slider: 6.2% FF40% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 40%ST 16%CH 15%SI 12%FS 11%SL 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skenes, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.9 mphFF97 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.2 mphST84 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mphSinker: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphSplit-Finger: 11% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 93.4 mphFS93 mphSlider: 6% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.6 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 81.2 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.9% 458 105 qualified
SL 22.2% 237 105 qualified
CH 18.9% 202 97 qualified
SI 15.0% 160 108 limited sample
CB 1.0% 11 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Sweeper 16%, Split-Finger 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.44
K% Δ+0.028
Sample111.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings146.6----
Batters Faced585----
K%26.8%25.5% to 38.7%+/- 6.6%
BB%7.1%4.2% to 8.2%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%27.1%25.0% to 34.1%+/- 4.5%
HR/90.990.42 to 1.55+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.2930.241 to 0.322+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed7.9%3.8% to 9.6%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.131.12 to 4.79+/- 1.84
FIP3.001.68 to 3.69+/- 1.01
WHIP1.1650.795 to 1.371+/- 0.288
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

684 career BF

xwOBA0.246
K%30.5%
BB%6.4%
Barrel5.8%
vs RHH

598 career BF

xwOBA0.233
K%27.8%
BB%4.5%
Barrel5.2%