Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Skenes, Paul

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.8% K%
Range
25.5% to 38.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.11
ERA current pace3.00
ERA rolling p503.05
Observed weight53%
ERA
1.75 2.36 3.05 3.74 4.35
FIP
2.16 2.49 2.87 3.25 3.59
K%
26.0% 27.8% 29.7% 31.6% 33.3%
BB%
4.2% 4.9% 5.6% 6.3% 6.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.5%
91 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.7%
85 +37 vs proj
Fastball velo96.9
88
Hard-hit allowed32.0%
86
K%29.4%
89
Whiff%23.3%
53 -26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.241
96 +27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+107
85
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Skenes, Paul · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2182026-05-19: 0.2312026-05-21: 0.2312026-05-23: 0.2312026-05-24: 0.2482026-05-25: 0.2482026-05-26: 0.2482026-05-28: 0.2482026-05-29: 0.2482026-05-30: 0.2412026-05-31: 0.2412026-06-01: 0.241 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Skenes, Paul · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skenes, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.9%Sweeper: 17.9%Changeup: 16.6%Sinker: 15.3%Split-Finger: 12.7%Curveball: 1.5% MIX FF 36%ST 18%CH 17%SI 15%FS 13%CU 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skenes, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.3FFST: HB -0.2, IVB 2.8STCH: HB -0.9, IVB 2.3CHSI: HB 0.4, IVB 1.9SIFS: HB -0.4, IVB 2.5FSCU: HB 0.9, IVB 4.0CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.5% 334 107 qualified
CH 19.8% 159 100 limited sample
SL 19.4% 156 105 limited sample
SI 17.9% 144 108 limited sample
CB 1.4% 11 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Sweeper 16%, Split-Finger 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.13
K% Δ+0.026
Sample68.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.3----
Batters Faced580----
K%26.8%25.5% to 38.7%+/- 6.6%
BB%7.1%4.2% to 8.2%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%27.1%25.0% to 34.1%+/- 4.5%
HR/90.990.42 to 1.55+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.2930.241 to 0.322+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed7.9%3.8% to 9.6%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.131.12 to 4.79+/- 1.84
FIP3.001.68 to 3.70+/- 1.01
WHIP1.1650.795 to 1.371+/- 0.288
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

684 career BF

xwOBA0.246
K%30.5%
BB%6.4%
Barrel5.8%
vs RHH

598 career BF

xwOBA0.233
K%27.8%
BB%4.5%
Barrel5.2%