Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Skenes, Paul

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.8% K%
Range
25.5% to 38.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
77
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal6 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.11
ERA current pace3.91
ERA rolling p503.71
Observed weight75%
ERA
2.25 2.94 3.71 4.48 5.17
FIP
2.40 2.78 3.20 3.63 4.01
K%
26.3% 27.3% 28.5% 29.7% 30.8%
BB%
5.7% 6.2% 6.8% 7.3% 7.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.13
82
ERA3.91
55
BB%7.1%
75
K%28.1%
86
xwOBA allowed0.281
84
Barrel allowed7.4%
51
Fastball velo96.7
84
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
50
Whiff%25.7%
74
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+96
18
Fastball Stuff+104
66
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+109
93
Slider Stuff+104
68
Curveball Stuff+102
49
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Skenes, Paul · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.281 2026-09-12: 0.2802026-09-13: 0.2802026-09-14: 0.2802026-09-18: 0.2802026-09-19: 0.2802026-09-20: 0.2802026-09-21: 0.2802026-09-22: 0.2802026-09-23: 0.2802026-09-24: 0.2802026-09-25: 0.2802026-09-26: 0.281 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Skenes, Paul · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skenes, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.7%Sweeper: 15.8%Changeup: 12.3%Sinker: 12.2%Split-Finger: 9.9%Slider: 8.5% FF41% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 41%ST 16%CH 12%SI 12%FS 10%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skenes, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.2 mphST84 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.7 mphCH89 mphSinker: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphSplit-Finger: 10% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 93.2 mphFS93 mphSlider: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 81.2 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.6% 747 104 qualified
SL 26.2% 449 104 qualified
SI 15.3% 262 109 qualified
CH 14.2% 243 96 qualified
CB 0.6% 11 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Sweeper 16%, Split-Finger 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.78
K% Δ+0.013
Sample175.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.7----
Batters Faced577----
K%26.8%25.5% to 38.7%+/- 6.6%
BB%7.1%4.2% to 8.2%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%27.1%25.0% to 34.1%+/- 4.5%
HR/90.990.42 to 1.55+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.2930.241 to 0.322+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed7.9%3.8% to 9.6%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.131.12 to 4.79+/- 1.84
FIP3.001.68 to 3.70+/- 1.01
WHIP1.1650.795 to 1.371+/- 0.288
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

684 career BF

xwOBA0.246
K%30.5%
BB%6.4%
Barrel5.8%
vs RHH

598 career BF

xwOBA0.233
K%27.8%
BB%4.5%
Barrel5.2%