Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Ohtani, Shohei

Bat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape

Primary
27.8% K%
Range
22.2% to 35.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
98
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
90
Pitching7 metrics
87
Speed3 metrics
53
Plate skills15 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.27
ERA current pace1.79
ERA rolling p502.37
Observed weight61%
ERA
1.31 1.81 2.37 2.93 3.43
FIP
2.04 2.39 2.78 3.17 3.52
K%
25.6% 27.1% 28.8% 30.5% 32.0%
BB%
6.2% 6.9% 7.6% 8.4% 9.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.6%
98
Exit velocity93.6
97
Hard-hit%52.6%
95
xBA0.406
97
xSLG0.802
98
xwOBA0.416
99
BB%14.6%
96
Bat speed73.0
89
K%23.3%
44
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
61
Barrel allowed3.5%
95 +35 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed33.0%
86
K%29.4%
91
Whiff%29.5%
90
xwOBA allowed0.257
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · DH
71
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
34
Sprint Speed27.5 · DH
53
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4% · rebadged research
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5% · rebadged research
81
Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research
67
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
79
Slider Stuff+111
96
Curveball Stuff+99
9
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · borderline
26
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.330 · validated thin sample
1
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · insufficient sample
9
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332 · validated
66
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.416 · validated
2
Sinker Stuff+84
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Ohtani, Shohei · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.416 2026-07-05: 0.4092026-07-06: 0.4092026-07-07: 0.4092026-07-08: 0.4152026-07-09: 0.4152026-07-10: 0.4112026-07-11: 0.4112026-07-12: 0.4122026-07-13: 0.4112026-07-14: 0.4162026-07-15: 0.4162026-07-16: 0.416 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Ohtani, Shohei · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 44%44%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 26%26%Zone contact: 84%84%Contact: 74%74%Hard hit: 53%53% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ohtani, Shohei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.1%Sweeper: 28.3%Curveball: 10.6%Split-Finger: 9.2%Sinker: 6.2%Slider: 1.0% FF44% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 44%ST 28%CU 11%FS 9%SI 6%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ohtani, Shohei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 98.0 mphFF98 mphSweeper: 28% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.9 mphST85 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 64″ drop, 75.3 mphCU75 mphSplit-Finger: 9% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.6 mphFS89 mphSinker: 6% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.2 mphSI96 mphSlider: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 88.0 mphSL88 mphCutter: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.4 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.6% 413 107 qualified
SL 34.0% 289 111 qualified
CB 10.7% 91 99 limited sample
SI 5.6% 48 84 limited sample
FC 1.1% 9 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Sweeper 21%, Slider 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.54
K% Δ+0.016
Sample93.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.6----
Batters Faced569----
K%27.8%22.2% to 35.5%+/- 6.7%
BB%7.2%5.2% to 9.8%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%26.8%21.8% to 31.1%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.210.64 to 1.77+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.2710.241 to 0.316+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed7.0%3.7% to 9.4%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.331.91 to 4.84+/- 1.46
FIP3.102.08 to 4.13+/- 1.02
WHIP0.9980.817 to 1.385+/- 0.284
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1099 career BF

xwOBA0.237
K%27.7%
BB%6.9%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

1187 career BF

xwOBA0.234
K%25.5%
BB%6.0%
Barrel5.6%