Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Ohtani, Shohei

Bat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape

Primary
27.8% K%
Range
22.2% to 35.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.27
ERA current pace0.82
ERA rolling p502.03
Observed weight51%
ERA
1.31 1.65 2.03 2.41 2.75
FIP
2.08 2.43 2.81 3.19 3.53
K%
25.5% 27.3% 29.3% 31.3% 33.1%
BB%
6.2% 6.9% 7.8% 8.6% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%15.0%
95
Barrel%9.8%
93
Bat speed73.0
89
Exit velocity93.6
96
Hard-hit%52.9%
95
K%23.3%
41
xBA0.401
96
xSLG0.742
95
xwOBA0.406
98
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.5%
54 -18 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.8%
95 +34 vs proj
Fastball velo97.4
92
Hard-hit allowed37.2%
63
K%30.8%
93
Whiff%31.2%
92 +15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.247
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · DH
71
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
35
Sprint Speed27.3 · DH
50
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.6% · rebadged research
70
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.7% · rebadged research
84
Correct Decisions68.8% · rebadged research
75
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.307 · borderline
13
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.252 · insufficient sample
99
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.318 · validated thin sample
2
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.366 · insufficient sample
5
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
34
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.407 · validated
2
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Ohtani, Shohei · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3902026-05-19: 0.3932026-05-21: 0.3972026-05-23: 0.4022026-05-24: 0.4022026-05-25: 0.4012026-05-26: 0.4042026-05-28: 0.4092026-05-29: 0.4082026-05-30: 0.4082026-05-31: 0.4112026-06-01: 0.406 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Ohtani, Shohei · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 44%44%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 25%25%Zone contact: 84%84%Contact: 75%75%Hard hit: 53%53% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ohtani, Shohei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.2%Sweeper: 27.9%Curveball: 10.9%Split-Finger: 10.5%Sinker: 6.0%Slider: 0.9% MIX FF 43%ST 28%CU 11%FS 10%SI 6%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ohtani, Shohei · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.2FFST: HB -0.6, IVB 2.9STCU: HB 0.4, IVB 5.4CUFS: HB -0.7, IVB 2.7FSSI: HB 1.2, IVB 2.0SISL: HB 0.3, IVB 3.1SLFC: HB 0.0, IVB 1.6FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.5% 382 107 qualified
SL 33.9% 261 111 qualified
CB 11.0% 85 98 limited sample
SI 4.7% 36 85 limited sample
FC 0.9% 7 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Sweeper 21%, Slider 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.51
K% Δ+0.029
Sample63.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings138.3----
Batters Faced564----
K%27.8%22.2% to 35.5%+/- 6.7%
BB%7.2%5.2% to 9.8%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%26.8%21.8% to 31.1%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.210.64 to 1.77+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.2710.241 to 0.316+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed7.0%3.7% to 9.4%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.331.91 to 4.84+/- 1.46
FIP3.102.08 to 4.13+/- 1.02
WHIP0.9970.817 to 1.385+/- 0.284
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1099 career BF

xwOBA0.237
K%27.7%
BB%6.9%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

1187 career BF

xwOBA0.234
K%25.5%
BB%6.0%
Barrel5.6%