Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026

Alonso, Pete

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.364 xwOBA
Range
0.312 to 0.424
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Impact slugger Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.354
xwOBA current pace0.361
xwOBA rolling p500.358
Observed weight56%
xwOBA
0.326 0.341 0.358 0.375 0.390
wOBA
0.317 0.334 0.353 0.373 0.390
ISO
0.166 0.184 0.204 0.224 0.242
K%
20.5% 21.8% 23.3% 24.8% 26.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.3%
69
Barrel%8.5%
86
Bat speed72.9
88
Exit velocity95.1
99
Hard-hit%55.9%
98 +18 vs proj
K%22.8%
45
xBA0.355
77
xSLG0.675
89
xwOBA0.361
84
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 1B
88
Range Runs2.8 · 1B
86
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 1B
35
Sprint Speed25.2 · 1B
8
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.0% · rebadged research
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7% · rebadged research
66
Correct Decisions68.9% · rebadged research
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
75
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
53
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
49
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291 · validated thin sample
17
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · insufficient sample
84
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354 · validated
26
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
30
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Alonso, Pete · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3442026-05-19: 0.3382026-05-21: 0.3432026-05-23: 0.3562026-05-24: 0.3562026-05-25: 0.3612026-05-26: 0.3672026-05-28: 0.3662026-05-29: 0.3662026-05-30: 0.3612026-05-31: 0.3622026-06-01: 0.361 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Pete Alonso's tools (88) outpace production (82) by 7 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too High
-13.0° Current 33° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

178 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Alonso, Pete · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsPull 15%Center field third: 70% of plotted batted ballsCenter 70%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 333 CF 400 RF 318 2026-03-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 8.02026-03-17 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 106.9 / LA 7.02026-03-18 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 78.3 / LA -35.02026-03-19 · double play · FC · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 9.02026-03-19 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 78.8 / LA 24.02026-03-19 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA -22.02026-03-20 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.3 / LA 22.02026-03-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 40.02026-03-21 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 23.02026-03-21 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 70.3 / LA -15.02026-03-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -3.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 40.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA -9.02026-03-23 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.0 / LA 15.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 38.02026-03-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 32.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 53.02026-03-28 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -20.02026-03-28 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 9.02026-03-29 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 108.0 / LA 5.02026-03-29 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 33.02026-03-29 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 70.1 / LA 21.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA -28.02026-03-30 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA -1.02026-03-31 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 81.9 / LA 38.02026-03-31 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 5.02026-03-31 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 27.02026-04-01 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -15.02026-04-01 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 38.02026-04-01 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 32.02026-04-01 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 107.0 / LA 7.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 85.6 / LA 14.02026-04-04 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.1 / LA -18.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA -21.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 28.02026-04-05 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 16.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 27.02026-04-06 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 18.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 63.02026-04-06 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 94.5 / LA 24.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.6 / LA -12.02026-04-07 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 56.5 / LA -3.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 36.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.3 / LA -47.02026-04-07 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 104.8 / LA -1.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.8 / LA -26.02026-04-08 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 100.6 / LA 18.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA -7.02026-04-10 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 74.0 / LA -1.02026-04-11 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -23.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA -14.02026-04-12 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 92.4 / LA 11.02026-04-12 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 16.02026-04-12 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.8 / LA 5.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 59.02026-04-13 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 102.3 / LA 16.02026-04-13 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 32.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 88.2 / LA 21.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.0 / LA -17.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 84.6 / LA 44.02026-04-16 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 26.02026-04-16 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 66.1 / LA -7.02026-04-16 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -29.02026-04-17 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 13.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 35.02026-04-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.5 / LA 3.02026-04-17 · fielders choice out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -8.02026-04-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 3.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 33.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 6.02026-04-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA -21.02026-04-20 · field out · CU · popup · EV 86.1 / LA 69.02026-04-21 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 24.02026-04-21 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 85.0 / LA 27.02026-04-21 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA 5.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 40.02026-04-22 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 106.9 / LA 26.02026-04-22 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 36.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 73.9 / LA 77.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 93.9 / LA 3.02026-04-24 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 52.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -28.02026-04-24 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 10.02026-04-24 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 2.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 44.02026-04-25 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -7.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 35.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 1.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.1 / LA 40.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.1 / LA -13.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA -7.02026-04-28 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 84.5 / LA -21.02026-04-28 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 26.02026-04-28 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA -11.02026-04-30 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 99.8 / LA -10.02026-04-30 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 48.02026-04-30 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 30.02026-04-30 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 17.02026-05-01 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 107.6 / LA 30.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.9 / LA 9.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 110.2 / LA 16.02026-05-02 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 114.6 / LA 23.02026-05-02 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA -20.02026-05-03 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 14.02026-05-03 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 7.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 82.3 / LA 22.02026-05-04 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 6.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA -3.02026-05-05 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 27.02026-05-05 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 4.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · popup · EV 90.9 / LA 62.02026-05-06 · double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 83.7 / LA -26.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 110.8 / LA 15.02026-05-06 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.5 / LA 35.02026-05-07 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -9.02026-05-07 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 36.02026-05-07 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 76.4 / LA 25.02026-05-08 · field out · FC · popup · EV 85.2 / LA 57.02026-05-08 · home run · CH · line_drive · EV 107.0 / LA 20.02026-05-08 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA -7.02026-05-09 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 82.7 / LA 10.02026-05-09 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA -38.02026-05-09 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 57.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.6 / LA -20.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 6.02026-05-10 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 92.9 / LA 24.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.5 / LA -31.02026-05-11 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 44.02026-05-11 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 67.9 / LA 8.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA -15.02026-05-12 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 11.02026-05-13 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 6.02026-05-13 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -10.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 75.8 / LA 41.02026-05-15 · field out · SL · popup · EV 92.0 / LA 75.02026-05-15 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 37.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 28.02026-05-16 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 105.5 / LA -8.02026-05-16 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 79.2 / LA 49.02026-05-16 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 18.02026-05-16 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.2 / LA 1.02026-05-17 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 55.02026-05-17 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.1 / LA 28.02026-05-17 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 0.02026-05-18 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 1.02026-05-18 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.0 / LA 22.02026-05-18 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.4 / LA 11.02026-05-19 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.8 / LA -2.02026-05-19 · field out · ST · popup · EV 96.0 / LA 60.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 108.5 / LA 15.02026-05-20 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 34.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 87.2 / LA 21.02026-05-20 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 111.8 / LA 14.02026-05-22 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 32.02026-05-22 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 49.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 18.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 29.02026-05-24 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 86.1 / LA 34.02026-05-24 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 109.4 / LA 34.02026-05-24 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 64.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 8.02026-05-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 1.02026-05-24 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 56.02026-05-25 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 81.5 / LA 15.02026-05-25 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 97.2 / LA 16.02026-05-25 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 11.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 2.02026-05-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -33.02026-05-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 80.8 / LA 30.02026-05-27 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 105.6 / LA 10.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 103.9 / LA 16.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA 0.02026-05-27 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -10.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.4 / LA -3.02026-05-31 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 87.8 / LA 19.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · popup · EV 89.5 / LA 66.02026-05-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.0 / LA -25.02026-05-31 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 5.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Alonso, Pete · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 33.6° Length 7.2 ft Ideal path 55% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Alonso, Pete · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 11.2° Direction +1.1° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Alonso, Pete · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 73.7 mph Hard swing rate 35% Whiff / swing 29% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Alonso, Pete · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 27%27%Whiff: 26%26%Zone contact: 84%84%Contact: 74%74%Hard hit: 56%56% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.003
wOBA Δ-0.011
Sample281 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances648----
Home Runs33----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3640.312 to 0.424+/- 0.056
ISO0.2320.152 to 0.308+/- 0.078
Barrel%8.8%6.6% to 11.5%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%47.0%40.3% to 55.3%+/- 7.5%
K%22.4%18.7% to 28.6%+/- 4.9%
BB%9.3%7.2% to 13.4%+/- 3.1%
BABIP0.2900.239 to 0.332+/- 0.046
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1249 career PA

xwOBA0.310
K%21.5%
BB%8.7%
Barrel8.2%
vs RHP

3299 career PA

xwOBA0.324
K%19.7%
BB%8.1%
Barrel8.6%