Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-04-13 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-04-13
0 activated plays
Gap rows 273
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-04-14 Older: 2026-04-12

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

José Ramírez

Lean

CLE vs STL | Matthew Liberatore

Value Score 38.3
Odds / Gap +395 / +3.13%
1+ HR 23.3%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.109x

Value Rank #2

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs AZ | Ryne Nelson

Value Score 37.3
Odds / Gap +710 / +8.08%
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.043x

Value Rank #3

Gunnar Henderson

Lean

BAL vs AZ | Ryne Nelson

Value Score 34.4
Odds / Gap +455 / +4.40%
1+ HR 22.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.043x

Value Rank #4

Alec Burleson

Strong

STL vs CLE | Gavin Williams

Value Score 33.4
Odds / Gap +630 / +7.15%
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.109x

Value Rank #5

Trea Turner

Play

PHI vs CHC | Javier Assad

Value Score 27.3
Odds / Gap +580 / +5.88%
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.028x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +9.21%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +240 / U -285
+9.21%
28.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +250 / U -310
+7.63%
27.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +245 / U --
-12.23%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+8.08%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+8.08%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+8.01%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+7.55%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+7.55%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+7.55%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+7.20%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+7.07%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+7.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +7.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+7.15%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+7.06%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+7.06%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+6.86%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+6.74%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+6.74%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+6.84%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+6.68%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+6.60%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.5
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+6.31%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+6.20%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+6.20%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+6.24%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+6.08%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+6.08%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+6.14%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+6.14%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.05%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+6.08%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+6.08%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+5.98%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+5.95%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+5.86%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.86%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+5.88%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+5.78%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+5.78%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+5.74%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+5.68%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+5.61%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Caballero headshot

José Caballero
NYY vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1130 / U -2055
+5.38%
7.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1100 / U --
+5.18%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1090 / U -2165
+5.11%
8.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 105.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+5.15%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+5.07%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+5.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -960
+5.13%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1020
+5.13%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.04%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+5.07%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+4.96%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+4.96%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1015
+4.86%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1075
+4.86%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+4.78%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.81%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+4.72%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.72%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.64%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 23.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +215 / U -255
+4.64%
30.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +230 / U -280
+2.79%
29.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +220 / U --
-7.72%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.59%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+4.59%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+3.25%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-7.81%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs ATH | Luis Severino | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+4.43%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+4.36%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+4.36%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.40%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+4.40%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+4.07%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+4.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+4.28%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+4.28%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.19%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+4.13%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+4.01%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+4.01%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+4.05%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+3.98%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+3.98%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+4.04%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.90%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+3.76%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1060 / U -1850
+3.97%
8.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1035 / U --
+3.78%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1025 / U -1950
+3.70%
8.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.2
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs ATH | Luis Severino | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+3.95%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+3.84%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+3.84%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+3.86%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+3.75%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+3.75%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs ATH | Luis Severino | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+3.82%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+3.69%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+3.55%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -840
+3.72%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -790
+3.61%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+3.61%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+3.68%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+3.54%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+3.39%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.45%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+3.45%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+3.35%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+3.35%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan Jeffers headshot

Ryan Jeffers
MIN vs BOS | Garrett Crochet | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +680 / U -970
+3.41%
12.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1030
+3.41%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +675 / U --
+3.33%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+3.24%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+3.17%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+3.17%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -755
+3.18%
15.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+3.06%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+3.06%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.18%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+3.18%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+1.90%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-6.24%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+3.13%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+2.92%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+2.71%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+3.12%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+3.05%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+3.05%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+2.71%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+2.57%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.57%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs BOS | Garrett Crochet | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+2.68%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -745
+2.57%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+2.57%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+2.59%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+2.46%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+2.33%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.58%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 21.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+2.58%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+1.24%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-5.80%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+2.46%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+2.27%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+2.08%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.43%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+2.27%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.27%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.39%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.39%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.39%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.3
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+2.38%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+2.23%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+2.08%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+2.37%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+2.25%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+2.25%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+2.32%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+2.20%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+2.20%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+2.24%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+2.10%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.10%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs ATH | Luis Severino | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+2.21%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+2.11%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+2.11%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1390
+2.18%
9.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1470
+2.02%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +865 / U --
+2.02%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.8
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+2.06%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+1.95%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+1.95%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+1.91%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+1.78%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+1.66%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.6
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+1.88%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+1.75%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.75%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+1.72%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.56%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+1.40%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+1.71%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+1.39%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.39%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs BOS | Garrett Crochet | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1200
+1.63%
10.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+1.57%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+1.57%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.7
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+1.53%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+1.36%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+1.32%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.5
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.53%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.23%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.23%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+1.39%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+1.26%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+1.26%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -570
+1.14%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+0.96%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+0.77%
18.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+1.01%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+0.69%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+0.69%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+0.95%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+0.82%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+0.82%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.95%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.95%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.95%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andy Pages headshot

Andy Pages
LAD vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +0.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+0.77%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+0.77%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+0.77%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.1
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+0.75%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
+0.29%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.05%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -720
+0.72%
15.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +510 / U -675
+0.59%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+0.59%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+0.60%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+0.46%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+0.32%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
+0.59%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
+0.22%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.22%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs BOS | Garrett Crochet | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+0.57%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-0.42%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-3.86%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +320 / U -390
+0.40%
23.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +330 / U -420
-0.78%
22.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +325 / U --
-3.52%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+0.40%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-0.61%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-3.69%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.34%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.34%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.34%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.3
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+0.03%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
-0.13%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
-0.30%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.11%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.42%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.42%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.30%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.30%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.30%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.1
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-0.49%
21.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-1.43%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-2.84%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs BOS | Garrett Crochet | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
-0.50%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
-0.64%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
-0.78%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs ATH | Luis Severino | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.70%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.70%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.53%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.66%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-0.77%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-0.98%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.19%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.78%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-0.97%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-1.16%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs ATH | Luis Severino | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-0.82%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.87%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-2.42%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 5.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.84%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.34%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-2.66%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.1
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -570
-1.07%
17.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +450 / U -610
-1.92%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-2.35%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.20%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.42%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.65%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-1.28%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-1.58%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-2.10%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
-1.43%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.64%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.65%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -540
-1.44%
18.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +430 / U -575
-1.81%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
-1.99%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%