Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	483	53	100	9	44	.227	.283	.347	.630
2025	370	52	74	5	49	.236	.339	.347	.686
2026	298	36	68	10	22	.250	.301	.397	.698
4 Seasons	1431	178	293	28	141	.233	.313	.353	.666

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

17

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

20

Defense4 metrics

33

Speed3 metrics

43

Plate skills10 metrics

41

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17

xwOBA preseason	0.280
xwOBA current pace	0.270
xwOBA rolling p50	0.274
Observed weight	59%

xwOBA

0.250 0.261 0.274 0.287 0.299

wOBA

0.292 0.308 0.326 0.344 0.360

ISO

0.111 0.123 0.137 0.152 0.164

K%

23.0% 24.3% 25.8% 27.3% 28.6%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%3.2%

23

Exit velocity81.0

3

Hard-hit%26.3%

9

xBA0.302

28

xSLG0.441

26

xwOBA0.270

16

BB%5.7%

19 -30 vs proj

Bat speed65.4

8

K%23.2%

44 +20 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-1.4 · SS

1

Arm Strength90.2 · SS

78

Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS

28

Range Runs-2.3 · SS

25

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.3 · SS

35

SB Success Rate69.6% · SS

26

Sprint Speed28.0 · SS

68

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-17

Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.4% · rebadged research

22

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0% · rebadged research

23

Correct Decisions61.3% · rebadged research

12

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93

15

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline

36

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample

42

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample

95

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · insufficient sample

16

Resists FastballwOBA 0.313 · validated

91

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated

53

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

José Caballero's tools (77) outpace production (79) by -2 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

155 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.9σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.326

xwOBA (deserved)0.270

Caballero’s wOBA sits at 0.326, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.270 — a gap of 0.056, -1.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 315 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Giménez, Andrés TOR · L	0.70	Sweet-spot rateIsolated power	Player · Projection
Peters, Tristan CWS · L	0.64	Max exit velocityBat speed	Player · Projection
Church, Nathan STL · L	0.60	Walk rateIsolated power	Player · Projection
Altuve, Jose HOU · R	0.57	Bat speedChase rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	3	2026-07-06	Impact contact was the main driver

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.286 xwOBA \| 9 HR	Projection
2026-04-17 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB, K, SB
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 2 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, 2 RBI
2026-04-14 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-13 vs LAA1 HR \| 2 RBI / 4 Ch \| 1 E	2-5 \| HR, 2B, 2 RBI
2026-04-12 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K

Age	29
Height	5' 9"
Weight	190 lb
Debut	2023-04-15

xwOBA Δ	-0.016
wOBA Δ	+0.039

Hitter Projections 20260.286 xwOBA \| 9 HR	Projection
2026-04-17 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB, K, SB
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 2 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, 2 RBI
2026-04-14 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-13 vs LAA1 HR \| 2 RBI / 4 Ch \| 1 E	2-5 \| HR, 2B, 2 RBI
2026-04-12 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K

José Caballero

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail